Mar 9, 2021 8:51 am
At times, bad news is good news for the stock markets. A backdrop of massive economic disruption caused many stock markets around the world to rise and hit lifetime highs. At the core of this risk on environment were interest rate cuts to multiyear lows that left investors little option but to take on more…
Read MoreMar 8, 2021 8:49 am
• Global growth data is strong and getting stronger • The upward pressure on bonds yields is here to stay – think a 10 year bond yield of 3% • Rotation away from last year’s winners of technology and duration • The new portfolio winners will be income producers: back to the Old Normal Last…
Read MoreMar 1, 2021 10:46 am
• Bonds endure a tough month. • Bond traders are sending an unambiguous signal to the Treasury that they do not see value in their paper. • US government Bond yields could go a lot higher – 6% is justified by historical precedent. • US 10 year government bond yields well above 2% look quite…
Read MoreFeb 22, 2021 10:06 am
• Economists raise global GDP forecasts after a strong start to the year • Many economists add one to two percentage points to their GDP growth forecasts • Fed Chairman Powell speaks this week – will he deflect from the easy money line? • Stay long equities and be very careful with bond duration Global…
Read MoreFeb 15, 2021 7:10 am
• Equity markets rise as global corporate earnings reports handsomely beat expectations. • US budget progress and an infrastructure and green budget to follow to keep markets vibrant. • COVID news from Israel promotes hope for earlier normalisation. • Better than expected US inflation data suppresses rise in US 10 year government bond yield •…
Read MoreFeb 9, 2021 12:09 pm
• Economic activity is patchy but in the right direction. • Inflation spike has bond yields trending higher. • Eurozone equities rally and should be helped by higher inflation. • Weaker China economic data may see equities consolidate after strong run. • Silver’s ‘Reddit run’ ended by contrived fundamentals. • Hong Kong’s ongoing relevance in…
Read MoreFeb 8, 2021 4:44 pm
After an eventful start to the year 2021 with a new Covid strain, renewed lockdowns, and the siege of the US Capitol Hill by protestors, more positive than negative news have emerged over the last few weeks. The new US President has taken over the office, the Covid vaccination program is picking up steam, we…
Read MoreFeb 2, 2021 10:33 am
The Energizer In the backdrop of an unprecedented pandemic there were a lot of policy announcements throughout the last year. Manoeuvring a tight fiscal space, not much was expected in the budget. But the Finance Minister surprised with a growth-oriented budget. The budget primarily focused on infrastructure, manufacturing and healthcare. Announcements like creation of asset…
Read MoreFeb 1, 2021 1:05 pm
• Commentary on bubble-like equity market conditions has reached a frenzy. • Equity market valuations are stretched, but that is not a useful signal for predicting a sell off. • The long term factors that have supported exaggerated valuations are still very much in play. • Would investors really substantially sell equities ahead of President…
Read MoreJan 25, 2021 3:08 pm
• COVID cases continue to climb but market focused on President Biden’s promises. • Asian data shows strong exports led principally by manufacturing. • Emerging market debt challenged but still able to perform. • Vietnam awaiting political news and primed for further performance. • Corporate results season expected to beat expectations. • Nothing expected from…
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