Apr 20, 2020 10:30 am
• US equities led by tech continue to climb higher • It’s only a matter of time before the scale of the drop in GDP overwhelms near-term positives for the equity markets • Everything is happening slower in the emerging markets and major challenges are ahead • Developed countries will have to be prepared to…
Read MoreApr 13, 2020 6:52 am
• Fed comes back to the market with a further wave of unprecedented support • A further $2.3 trillion and they may still not yet be done • The purchase of junk bonds comes with huge moral hazard • The Fed’s emergency’ action now spans over a decade • We suspect that the Fed has…
Read MoreApr 7, 2020 4:29 am
• The markets will have to absorb poor economic data as unemployment rises sharply and activity collapses • The depth of the economic slump dependent on people retaining their jobs and SMEs staying in business • Selective bond exposure the first port of call for new investment • Emerging Markets face big risks as the…
Read MoreApr 6, 2020 11:26 am
Nobel Laureate Esther Duflo a couple of days ago said that uncertainties are giving rise to uncertainties. That statement best sums up the economic environment we are in currently. Is Covid19 one quarter or a one year problem? Will we have an extended lockdown or is the end in sight? Or is a shut-start-shut the…
Read MoreMar 30, 2020 10:17 am
• Despite last week’s rally in the equity market we see risks substantially to the downside • Remember that COVID-19 has only laid bare the problems of the global economy • We see no quick and easy way out of the challenges facing the markets • Listen to the medical specialists – the virus will…
Read MoreMar 27, 2020 8:34 am
RBI Unveils Many Arms from Its Arsenal ‘Whatever it takes’ was given a whole new meaning today by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). It fired from every barrel to support the economy in its fight against slowdown triggered by the Covid19 pandemic. Interest Rates: The repo rate was slashed by 75 bps to 4.40%…
Read MoreMar 23, 2020 10:21 am
• Market panic in full flow • However, policymakers are well engaged and starting to deliver scale intervention • Economists at a loss to understand the true scale of the likely recession • Fear of massive deleveraging particularly amongst corporates • Policymakers need to work hard to mitigate mass unemployment • Bonds are better supported…
Read MoreMar 16, 2020 9:45 am
• Panic in the financial markets prompts policymakers to accelerate their efforts to support the global economy • Fed cuts rates to near zero and provides $700bn of further liquidity – but equities are limit down • Governments will need to expand fiscal policy substantially to replace the collapse in economic activity • Global growth…
Read MoreMar 9, 2020 4:08 am
Global equity markets including India, have taken further deep cuts today as a confluence of factors play out – Crude oil price war, spread of coronavirus and domestically the Yes Bank cookie crumbling. As we write this note, US S&P 500 is cooling at a circuit breaker down 7% today and down 17% from its…
Read MoreMar 2, 2020 10:33 am
“The oldest and strongest emotion of mankind is fear, and the oldest and strongest kind of fear is the fear of the unkown”Not ironically, the quote is by a horror fiction writer. And the past week of equity markets may well have been scripted by someone like that. The newly identified coronavirus Covid19, that Bill…
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