Nov 3, 2026 9:10 am
• Two risks, one channel: Higher oil prices keep interest rates elevated just as the AI investment boom becomes increasingly dependent on external financing. • Markets at odds: Falling bond yields signal weaker growth and eventual policy easing, while central banks remain focused on persistent inflation. • AI investment priorities are shifting: Favour cash-generative beneficiaries…
Read MoreNov 2, 2026 9:57 am
October was the month when markets started to distinguish between growth and the financing of growth. Global equities fell 0.8%, the NASDAQ lost 5.3% and emerging markets fell 8.0%. Yet global aggregate bonds rose 1.7%, energy gained 12.8% and healthcare 9.9%. The market did not abandon risk. It changed the price it was willing to…
Read MoreOct 27, 2026 9:18 am
The Fed has little room to move this coming week, most likely a hold but worried about the future. Oil is above $110, core inflation is broadening and growth has continued to run well above trend. When a central bank can’t ease the strain grows where borrowing needs are growing fastest. That was in two…
Read MoreOct 21, 2026 9:37 am
• Inflation rises to 3.7%, yet the US 10-year yield falls 17bps to 5.07% • Bonds rallying on bad inflation news implies investors are starting to price in trouble • The tech boom meant to save growth is financed by ever-more expensive debt • Too much, too fast: data-centre pushback, inadequate energy, a strained consumer…
Read MoreOct 12, 2026 10:02 am
What has changed since last week? Last week, we advised clients to watch out for five important developments. Here is how those developments unfolded. • US 10-year at 5.30–5.35%. Tested and rejected. Yields rose briefly above 5.3% before settling around 5.24%, a little below the preceding week’s 5.27% close. • India’s RBI on 7 October….
Read MoreOct 8, 2026 9:56 am
• Global growth remains resilient, but elevated inflation likely to keep rates higher for longer. • Bonds and Equities diverge, bond reflect persistent inflation risks while equities don’t. • Indian growth remains strong despite global headwinds. • We are constructive on Indian equities and would use near-term volatility to add exposure. • Within equities, we…
Read MoreOct 6, 2026 9:28 am
Warren Buffett’s line about the tide going out is usually applied to a single market accident. But this time it appears to apply to a regime as well. For nearly 20 years, low interest rates and contained inflation provided cover to a lot of anomalies. Governments borrowed with impunity. Investors borrowed heavily and built up…
Read MoreOct 5, 2026 7:39 am
September was the month the bond market caught up with reality. Global growth stayed strong (stronger than central bankers would like), inflation remained stubbornly above target and the Middle East conflict pushed oil decisively back above $100 a barrel. The result was a sharp repricing of the price of money. The US 10-year Treasury yield…
Read MoreSep 28, 2026 9:22 am
• Clear evidence of a possible/probable new regime in the US bond market • Equities can ignore only as long as earnings forecasts continue to rise • Credit markets more nervous particularly with heavy supply from tech sector • For defensive equities look to the utility sector after some marked underperformance The US bond market…
Read MoreSep 22, 2026 9:38 am
• The 2027 vs 2006 parallel: strong growth and calm markets right before the lag caught up last time • Economic risk looks contained; market risk does not — valuations don’t need a recession to fall, just higher rates for longer • The Fed, ECB and BoJ are now tightening in sync, and cracks are…
Read More
