The Market Finally Believes the War

Sep 15, 2026

11:38 am

For much of the past six months, markets treated the Iran war as some temporary disturbance. As the war progressed and conflicting narratives emerged, oil prices spiked and retreated. Bond yields rose, which encouraged some duration buying. If you were too bearish on bonds, you would be hurt by promises of ceasefires holding, or, in…

Read More

Investment Strategy

Sep 11, 2026

9:18 am

• US Treasury borrowing costs likely to stay elevated amid fiscal concerns. • September Fed rate-hike probability has risen to 60% amid hawkish Fed commentary. • Indian economy remains resilient despite global headwinds. • Q1 earnings were better than expected, with no meaningful downgrades to FY27 estimates. • We remain positive over the medium-to long…

Read More

The Global Price of Money is Rising

Sep 8, 2026

6:13 am

• Equity market calm looks mistaken: bonds and commodities repriced sharply higher last week even as major indices barely moved • Seven developed market central bank meetings in the next two months could deliver up to three hikes, against a growth backdrop that is accelerating, not slowing • The marginal buyer of US Treasuries is…

Read More

Macro and Markets Review for August 2026

Sep 3, 2026

9:11 am

August was a good month for risk assets, but not a comfortable one. Global equities rose 2.6%, the US gained 2.7%, technology returned to leadership and emerging markets advanced 3.4%. Gold rose almost 10% and Bitcoin more than 25%. Yet the most important market during the month may have been the bond market, where long-dated…

Read More