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MARKET COMMENTARY

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This is Not Going Well

Feb 11, 2025

• Market Uncertainty Rises Amid US Policy Shifts – Disruptive policymaking in the US continues to keep investors on edge. • Consumer Confidence Wanes Amid Inflation Concerns – US consumers fret about near-term inflation worries persist. • Tech Stocks Face Pressure – High valuations and mixed quarterly earnings outlooks weigh on US technology stocks. •…

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Investment Strategy

Feb 6, 2025

• Trade war begins, likely leading to global market volatility. • India’s Union Budget shifts its focus to consumption, unlike previous budgets that emphasized capex. • Personal income tax cut will leave more disposable income in the hands of the middle class, likely supporting the recovery of urban demand. • The budget is neutral for…

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It Was Sadly Inevitable

Feb 5, 2025

• Trump’s Tariff Strategy It was a foregone conclusion that President Trump would set off a tariff war to address drug and immigration challenges. • Economic Risks Growth faces downside risks, while inflation pressures continue to build. • Fed’s Stance on Rate Cuts: Market expectations for rate cuts are likely to moderate still further, especially…

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Macro and Markets Review for January 2025

Feb 4, 2025

Global growth and inflation trends remain largely unchanged at an aggregate level. However, beneath the surface, growth leadership appears to be shifting from the U.S. to Japan and Europe. The early days of the Trump presidency have unsettled markets, with a flurry of executive orders that face potential legal challenges. Policies such as aggressive immigration…

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