Apr 7, 2026 11:23 am
Longer Crisis, Larger Inflation Pulse The market still seems to think this is an oil spike with an exit ramp. We take a different view. We believe investors are underestimating the duration of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and, therefore, its long-term inflationary impact. The initial signs of the conflict are already visible…
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Apr 6, 2026 12:47 pm
GCIO Quarterly – Q1 2026 – Geopolitics Repriced The first quarter of 2026 will be remembered for the return of geopolitical shock as the dominant market driver. The global economy entered the year on reasonably firm footing, but not on especially sturdy foundations. Inflation had been easing only slowly in several major economies, central banks…
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Mar 30, 2026 10:16 am
Markets still looked too relaxed….. at least until this morning Friday’s sell-off in US equities may prove to be the first small crack in what has otherwise been a remarkably composed response to a deteriorating global backdrop. Riding on last year’s strong rally, equities remain close to highs. Bond yields have advanced, but not yet…
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Mar 24, 2026 9:07 am
The Middle East crisis presents an opportunity to stress-test portfolios, not to redesign them. Markets have already priced in the first phase of the shock, but there is still insufficient clarity on duration and escalation to support large shifts in asset allocation. The market reaction to the current crisis remains consistent with an energy shock…
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