Aug 4, 2020 5:32 am
A cursory look at the headlines most of the past month would conclude that the theme was ‘some more of the same’ – rise in covid cases, disconnect between equity markets and economies, printing of currencies, expectations from Fed, US-China rivalry and uncertainty around the roadmap of the near future. Global Macro The United States…
Read MoreAug 3, 2020 2:34 pm
• Policymakers are likely to remain heavily engaged in support of their economies • Stuttering global growth encourages additional support • US Congress will have to provide, with the Fed as a backstop • Strong markets in July led by precious metals • We believe that both equities and credit remain biased higher • Hold…
Read MoreJul 27, 2020 6:22 am
• A call on the market outlook is more complex than just buy or sell • The rolling over of good economic data was inevitable, it doesn’t mean bad news • Too much focus on the US equity market, other assets are still down a long way • The EU delivers a positive surprise –…
Read MoreJul 20, 2020 8:04 am
• EM equities and bonds have stalled in recent days • Recovery prospects for some EMs have been dimmed by poor virus response • Sharp trade reversals have been in evidence, but a slow recovery is now underway • Debt accumulation is inevitable; further creditor support may be necessary • Europe is still trying to…
Read MoreJul 13, 2020 7:45 am
• As Dr Fauci gives clear warnings of a building problem in the US markets continue to gain. • Rising credit defaults – high yield defaults have doubled and may double again • Fed has provided stability to high yield but not stopped a divergence from investment grade • Be vigilant in the financials sector,…
Read MoreJul 7, 2020 6:15 am
• Momentum still with equities • A rotation into value stocks may require a burst of inflation • Emerging stocks showing some good relative gains • Bond investors increasingly turning to manager skill for returns • Germany takes over the EU presidency with hopes of progress on a number of fronts • Eurozone equities look…
Read MoreJul 6, 2020 12:44 pm
As the first half of 2020 came to a close, it felt like a cliff hanger of a television series season. Escalating covid cases, continuing equity market strength, tense geopolitical equations, no-deal Brexit, brr of the printing presses – the interplay of events and response have been dizzying. Even while we come to terms with…
Read MoreJun 29, 2020 9:14 am
• Markets pause as COVID cases rise • We see risks to the upside balancing the near term downside risks • Economic data has generally been better than market expectations • We do not expect governments to re-impose draconian lockdowns • Policy makers to remain very supportive of their respective economies • Consumer spending is…
Read MoreJun 22, 2020 6:37 am
• COVID-19 hits new peaks as markets maintain high valuations • Engagement of policymakers leaves markets sanguine about the risks • Equites driven by liquidity and momentum not valuation • The working-off of the government debt mountain is a challenge for the future not for now COVID-19 is turning out to be just another test…
Read MoreJun 15, 2020 8:55 am
• The Fed risks creating distorted signals with its bond support program • Hertz in bankruptcy raises equity!! • Investors increasingly have to turn to equities for income even allowing for dividend cuts • Government bond yields below equity yields and inflation “A company for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to…
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