Sep 28, 2020 7:49 am
• US equities continue to slip from their highs. • Economists cut GDP forecasts as fiscal stimulus wanes – but governments may be forced back into action. • Insider selling by US corporate management shows companies may be unnerved • US financial sector looks by and large strong enough to cope with the economic challenges…
Read MoreSep 21, 2020 8:00 am
• US political uproar masks a loss of economic momentum allowing Chinese assets to take the lead • The Fed confirms lower for longer …maybe much longer • Better than expect Chinese economic data compares with some disappointments in the US • Don’t get carried away with the outperformance of value over growth in the…
Read MoreSep 14, 2020 6:32 am
• Brexit negotiations take a turn for the worse – sterling still at near term risk • UK and EU may take it all the way to the wire before agreeing to a compromise • Policymakers in main economic blocs go quiet – but there is still work to be done • High Yield market…
Read MoreSep 8, 2020 12:00 am
• Markets are still thinking about the potential impact of near zero interest rates for years to come. • Strategists seen giving up trying to analyse what it implies for asset values. • Difficult to see how the Fed will achieve its long-term goal of inflation without new tools. • Nasdaq sell-off a correction from…
Read MoreSep 7, 2020 1:23 pm
In each of our commentary over the last five months, at the cost of sounding like a broken record, we have written about the global disconnect between the real economy and equity markets. The US leads this gulf. It’s hard to reconcile staggering facts such as US government debt is expected to exceed the size…
Read MoreAug 31, 2020 9:06 am
• Federal Reserve guides to lower for much longer. • No major central bank minded to raising rates over the medium term. • Credit markets continue to be attractive in the absence of a positive cash yield. • Emerging markets have a huge opportunity to exploit. • Low rates and accommodating monetary policy not necessarily…
Read MoreAug 24, 2020 9:29 am
• Economic data shows that investors have to keep half an eye on a slowdown. • European and Japanese confidence data fails to convince – services a notable weak point. • Tesla share price gains defy logic, except to Robinhood investors. • China’s asset management and asset markets continue to attract foreign capital. • The…
Read MoreAug 17, 2020 12:12 pm
• Pockets of inflation causing some stress for investors. • We do not expect a general rise in global inflation but remain watchful. • Central banks in emerging markets still have scope for further rate cuts, although be patient with India. • Good geopolitical news from the Middle East, if only there was more. Pockets…
Read MoreAug 10, 2020 7:14 am
• Good economic data encourages risk taking • Persistent low interest rates help sectors beyond tech • Watch for a re-rating of emerging markets • After a wobble, REITS are finding their feet and are still good value • The life of a CIO is never easy There was little in the economic data last…
Read MoreAug 7, 2020 4:17 am
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting today, as expected, kept rates unchanged while maintaining an accommodative stance. The MPC highlighted that space for monetary easing exists, as inflation could decline in H2 FY21, but wants to use it judiciously and wants to remain watchful of incoming data. The…
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