Jan 18, 2021 12:47 pm
• $190 trillion emergency package expected within days • Infrastructure “Build back better plan” expected in February • Acceleration of COVID 19 vaccine distribution • Global trade antagonism toned down • Financial markets like the support for growth but wary of a build of inflations Viewed from all possible angles, the start of the Biden…
Read MoreJan 11, 2021 3:43 pm
• Even trouble in Congress can’t stop the bull run in asset prices. • Biden’s majority in both houses opens the prospect of further significant fiscal support. • Eurozone policy makers have yet to respond to the aggravated COVID crisis. • US inflation-linked bonds discount a lot of inflation but we don’t believe the Fed…
Read MoreJan 5, 2021 2:42 pm
Risk assets did well, considering the context. It is difficult to imagine a more challenging year for markets if one was to judge purely on the economic damage wrought by COVID-19. Nonetheless, most bellwether equity indices managed to post positive returns for the year. There were wide disparities at the sector and regional level as…
Read MoreJan 4, 2021 12:31 pm
Global markets – A year of two halves As we enter 2021, it is evident that the policymakers are still very engaged in supporting the global economy. Their support will help maintain global activity at a time when we still see the impact of the virus. However, as we move into the second half, year-on-year…
Read MoreDec 21, 2020 1:01 pm
• Debt is not a problems unless you are small • The biggest risk to everything – inflation. • Government bonds are for risk hedging not income • US global political power may just have (really) peaked. • Policymakers may remain in denial of risks to mankind despite the warning from COVID. • North Sea…
Read MoreDec 14, 2020 2:45 pm
• November In Q2, a colossal default wave looked to be crashing down on markets • Into 2021, default risk has been mitigated, but sectors and regions face continued issues • Absent a return to crisis mode there is still value to be found • Regional differences will persist and present threat and opportunity in…
Read MoreDec 9, 2020 1:41 am
Global Macro and Equities As Covid19 vaccine inches closer to reality for millions of people, it feels like normalcy is back in the line of sight. One may argue that globally cases are still rising, but lower fatalities in the current wave is a respite. We are seeing signs of a return to normalcy in…
Read MoreDec 7, 2020 6:20 am
• November sees significant returns to most risk assets • Leadership was outside of the US as Europe rebounded strongly • Value in energy and financials outpaces technology • High yield has a vaccine inspired rally, • EM failed to keep up the pace but should see good support November saw some extraordinary gains for…
Read MoreDec 1, 2020 6:47 am
• Markets keep faith in the prospect of a vaccine, and ongoing support from policymakers. • With equities in a euphoric mood it is worth keeping in mind some of the risks • Latest Fed minutes and Yellen at the Treasury argues for anchored long-term rates • Low mortgage rates bring vibrancy in the housing…
Read MoreNov 23, 2020 8:52 am
• President Trump’s ongoing breaking with convention remains a risk to markets. • COVID remains a significant near-term risk to the global economy and markets. • US and Europe expected to see negative growth over the turn of the year. • Fed expected to act in December probably by keeping long rates anchored. • Value…
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