The Folly of the Fed’s Last Dot Plot

Jul 16, 2024

9:09 am

• Good US inflation report increases hopes for a rate cut no later than in September • US Core CPI has fallen to 2.1% in Q2 from 4.2% in Q1 • The prospect of a rate cut should help equities hold up despite weaker-than-expected growth data • Equity market rotation into interest rate-sensitives and small…

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Investment Strategy

Jul 10, 2024

11:37 am

• Dichotomy of headline data persists in the US. • Global equity markets remain buoyant, led by the US technology sector. • We maintain a neutral stance on Indian equity due to elevated valuations. • We prefer duration in the Indian bond market, given favourable supply-demand dynamics. The McKelvey Rule For the past few months,…

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A July Rate Cut?

Jul 9, 2024

9:43 am

• US economic data currently lends itself to earlier rate cuts • The ISM Service Sector index was sharply weaker • The Fed might consider a rate cut at its July meeting • We expect selective interest rate-sensitive sectors to perform • US 2-year government bond yield on track to decline to 4.2% Maybe, just…

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UK Election Special – Shifting to the Left

Jul 8, 2024

9:15 am

• The UK electorate has dramatically ended 14 years of Conservative Party rule with a crushing victory for the Labour Party, winning a majority of 166 with 408 seats. • Conservative Party representation falls to 136, 208 seats lost and its worst defeat in modern times. • Voter turnout was depressed with the swing to…

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