Jun 8, 2020 6:48 am
• Massive surprise on US employment favours risk assets • With waves of powerful policy response still flowing investors will be upbeat • We expect an ongoing rotation into assets that have underperformed • We expect Europe and emerging markets to play catch up • Growth stocks may struggle due to higher long-term interest rates…
Read MoreJun 3, 2020 3:37 am
Global reopening, a ray of hope “Finally!” is the emotion that springs to our minds as large part of the globe shifts gears from managing through a lockdown to re-emergence. Notwithstanding personal fears, just having the option of mobility is a big trigger for the hope of normalcy. But one look at the accompanying chart…
Read MoreJun 1, 2020 7:08 am
• As is the case in equity markets, credit is showing strong evidence of short-term overvaluation • Further downgrades are inevitable • The impact of economic pain is far from clear • A properly articulated bond strategy could avoid the pitfalls and take advantage of high spreads Credit markets have recovered well from the point…
Read MoreMay 26, 2020 6:29 am
• Economic data displays fewer really bad surprises • Some country and sector rotation within equity markets • Emerging market debt showing good momentum • India – a market waiting to perform • Chinese assets with domestic support but international challenges We would frame the current market phase as a ‘re-opening filled with hope’. Markets…
Read MoreMay 23, 2020 1:32 am
Repo Rate Cut by 40bps; Moratorium Extended The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an unscheduled monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting today reduced the policy repo rate by 40bps to 4%, the lowest in last two decades. The MPC judged that the risks to growth are acute, while the risks to inflation are likely to…
Read MoreMay 18, 2020 10:03 am
• Unprecedented rise in government deficits and indebtedness globally • New Zealand announces a budget worth a staggering 17% of GDP • Global debt to GDP set to rise to 108% • Governments and central banks will have to be creative to keep the potential damage to bond markets in check • How far off…
Read MoreMay 11, 2020 7:20 am
• The grind higher in US equities appears to back the V-shaped recovery view • A possible 25% unemployment rate would signal a U. • We should remain cognisant of the massive relief provided to households • Will households save or spend their ‘Trump’ cheques? … History suggests saving • Some US equities have seen…
Read MoreMay 5, 2020 7:58 am
“The more things change, the more they remain the same”. Do they? We have been in the eye of a storm that has been threatening to change most things that touches our lives directly as well as indirectly. We have been exploring in the context of investment strategy as advisors, custodians and ‘fiduciarists’. Global macro…
Read MoreMay 4, 2020 1:31 pm
• April’s relief rally after a frenetic March • The slow unwind of the lockdown should at the very least help sentiment • Policymakers continue to rack up their support • The depth of the global recession still unknown • The asset market is framing the future outcomes around survivors, thrivers and victims April brought…
Read MoreApr 27, 2020 6:11 am
• Global economy beyond its worst shock but that doesn’t mean an easy recovery • Second quarter Global GDP forecast to contract at 20%+ on an annualised basis • Bond and equity markets slowly absorbing the scale of the damage but we are only part way through • Crucial will be the scale of the…
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