The Fed under Pressure

Mar 19, 2024

9:22 am

• US bond market witnessed a sharp correction last week on unfavourable inflation data that unnerved investors • Inflation data has signalled a persistence that must worry the Fed • The FOMC is under pressure to reassess its guidance to the markets at this week’s meeting • Market prices just two or three rate cuts…

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US Equities: Pushing the Envelope too far?

Mar 12, 2024

8:14 am

• US equities discount more of the same – growth and low interest rates • A more sobering view has less growth and higher interest rates and hence lower valuation • A serious correction in the near-term maybe headed off by the near term hope of robust growth, lower interest rates and a future corporate…

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Investment Strategy

Mar 11, 2024

12:53 pm

• Market expectations of rate cuts by the Fed has moderated amid spike in January inflation numbers. • While headline numbers point to a resilient US economy, there are signs of stress under the surface. • We are close to neutral on Indian equity as valuations turn expensive even as macro and earnings are supportive….

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Sticky Inflation Challenges the Bond Markets

Mar 5, 2024

7:19 am

• Inflation still a headache for global markets and central bankers • Last week’s US PCE data points to pockets of a re-acceleration of inflation in the service sector • Since Q4’23 the global trend has been of a stickiness to inflation • Recent research reports question whether long-term US bond yields are structurally headed…

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