market-commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY

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Don’t get Anchored on the Wrong Past!

Oct 10, 2023

8:49 am

• It would be a mistake to believe that bond yields will revert back to the average of the last decade • Instead we see fair value for the US 10 year bond yield at 4-5% into the medium term • Spike higher in US industrial confidence argues for a rebound in equities through the…

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A Quarterly Turning Point

Oct 3, 2023

9:46 am

• Bonds and equities give negative returns for the quarter • The sharp rise in long term interest rates weighs heavily on the markets • Much higher oil prices propels more inflation and the equity oil sector • High yield bonds look vulnerable to a correction – EM debt less so • Japanese growth still…

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A Wake Up Call from the Fed

Sep 26, 2023

5:32 am

• US Fed signals the need for further tightening and the persistence of high rates • US 10-year government bond yield is still vulnerable to spiking to as high as 5% • With the Central Bank of Brazil in easing mode, Latam debt remains well supported • Bank of Japan on hold, but may be…

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Portfolio Commentary

Sep 21, 2023

12:01 pm

• The trend in PSUs and business-to-government (B2G) sectors like defence and railways has surprised the investing crowd. • It’s essential to realise the importance of “newness” in investing. • Investors have traditionally ignored the newness factor in emerging themes. • History is replete with examples of how the evolution of humankind has happened because…

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