market-commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY

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Positively Negative

Sep 5, 2023

1:38 pm

• Both equities and bonds delivered negative returns in August in a positively corelated way • Ongoing gap between Fed’s signalling on rates and the market’s forecast • Market prices no further rate hikes and five Fed funds rate cuts by the end of 2024 • China sees a modicum of better news after foreign…

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Central Bankers Attempt to Climb Out of a Hole

Aug 29, 2023

6:58 am

• Central bankers signal higher for longer, but watching the data • ECB Lagarde refers to a “new playbook” • BRICS broadens, underlining the profound change in the power of the so-called emerging markets • China still struggles to placate the ongoing angst among investors • China’s political thought at odds with capitalist financial markets…

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Portfolio Commentary

Aug 26, 2023

2:30 am

The recession in the distance • A twenty-month rate hike cycle hasn’t triggered a recession. • The US economy is defying all odds. • Past recessions give cues about the severity of market decline from an economic downturn. • Growth in earnings along with correction has improved valuations of Indian equities. • The valuations now…

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Maybe we should talk about 5%

Aug 22, 2023

6:42 am

• A reaccelerating global growth has economists having to consider much higher long-term interest rates • Meanwhile, economists have revised up third-quarter growth forecasts on strong end-consumer demand • Historical precedents suggest a 5% US 10-year government bond yield is possible • Japan delivers a huge upward surprise on GDP growth • Prospects of higher…

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