Feb 18, 2019 2:41 pm
“The contrary investor is every human when he resigns momentarily from the herd and thinks for himself” – Archibald MacLeish Chile’s Acclaimed F.M. Visits India – His Comments on Fiscal Austerity vs Profligacy Before we get to our commentary, a quick note. Last week, Andres Velasco, former finance minister of Chile, was in town. Andres…
Read MoreFeb 7, 2019 2:09 pm
The Reserve Bank of India today decided to reduce the policy repo rate to 6.25% from 6.50% with four out of six members voting in favour of the cut. The MPC also decided to change the monetary policy stance from “calibrated tightening” to “neutral” with an objective of achieving a medium-term target for CPI of…
Read MoreFeb 4, 2019 2:11 pm
Objective factors do play a part in cycles, of course, but it’s the application of psychology to these things that causes investors to under or over react, and thus determines the amplitude of cyclical fluctuations – Howard Marks Factor investing chooses securities on attributes that are associated with higher returns. We focus on style factors…
Read MoreFeb 1, 2019 1:44 pm
Budget Highlights The government demonstrated admirable restraint in adhering to the fiscal deficit targets and staying within the glide path, while coming forward with meaningful relief for the struggling rural sector, tax relief for the middle class and a wider set of corporates and outlining a vision for the future. Highlighting Progress Achieved to Date…
Read MoreJan 21, 2019 1:25 pm
The penalty in terms of likely opportunity cost is just too great to justify being out of the markets – Howard Marks, Sep ‘18 Equities Typical of bull market action, the market continues to react positively to good data (lower inflation) and continues to shrug off bad news (low IIP). Earnings are off to a…
Read MoreJan 7, 2019 9:47 am
The worst thing I can be is the same as everybody else – Arnold Schwarznegger. Expectations of Further Volatility in Domestic Equities a Low Probability Outcome The global strategist community appears to have settled on a near consensus view of slowing global growth, continued volatility and downside risks into 2019. Arnold’s quote is relevant to…
Read MoreDec 10, 2018 12:44 pm
We live in the best era in history to be an investor, but that doesn’t mean it will be easy. It’ll never be easy. Outlook An Election Cloud Descends Over the Markets Heading into 2019 First the good news. The Fed finally appears to be on hold, having hiked the U.S. and global economy into…
Read MoreDec 5, 2018 2:40 pm
The Reserve Bank of India today decided to maintain the policy repo rate at 6.5% unanimously. The MPC maintained its stance at “calibrated tightening” on monetary policy and commitment to achieving a medium-term target for CPI of 4% ± 2%, while supporting growth. Key highlights of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Global Macro Weakening Global economic…
Read MoreNov 26, 2018 1:36 pm
Crude oil prices have fallen dramatically, with Brent falling 31% from a high of $86.2 to $58.8 in the past few weeks. The dramatic drop in prices has been precipitated by rising inventories, expectations of dramatically rising U.S. production in 2019, coupled with cooling global demand, leading to a supply demand mismatch. The volatility in…
Read MoreNov 12, 2018 10:52 am
In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable – Arnott 1954 A Holiday Gift for Investors The rapid decline in crude oil prices is a direct boost for businesses and consumers, and particularly for India as a crude oil importer. Brent crude is at the lowest levels it’s been since May 2018, with prices down…
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