Probably not Neutral

Jan 16, 2024

7:54 am

• With US economic surprises close to neutral the markets are looking for new trends • We suspect that markets are mistakenly pricing a soft landing • US economic growth momentum may depend on a resurgent consumer • Taiwan’s not for turning – near-term challenge from China should already be discounted • China has growth,…

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Nothing has Changed but Everything has Changed

Jan 9, 2024

8:13 am

• From the exuberance of 2023 the markets transition to 2024 has been patchy • Over the past two years asset markets have moved sideward and market has started the year with some nervousness • Flat earnings and higher interest rates do not bode well for the US equity market’s relative performance • Global growth…

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2023 Asset Market Review

Jan 4, 2024

10:05 am

2023 in the context of 2022 It’s shocking but true that the global equity market return (in USD) has hardly provided a positive total return in the past two years, and the NASDAQ index even gave a negative return. It’s important to keep this in mind when reflecting on 2023, as it’s easy to get…

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Ten Pointers to 2024

Jan 3, 2024

7:55 am

As we step into a new year, its crucial to understand the evolving landscape of financial markets. We look back to draw lessons and try to gauge what can be set right. We dwell on the happenings of the year gone by and try to understand what can go right – and wrong – for…

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