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Testing Times

Aug 16, 2023

7:26 am

• US inflation better, but not comfortably reverting to the Fed target • Market appears too optimistic in expecting Fed rate cuts early next year • Remember US growth forecasts are rising and the labour market remains tight • China’s economic challenges deepen with more trouble in the real estate sector • Italy makes a…

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Investment Strategy

Aug 11, 2023

6:39 am

• Global equity momentum continued in July amid supportive US data. • However, several factors could impact the anticipated “soft-landing” scenario. • Global slowdown may impact India’s services exports growth, but currently, India is showing resilience. • Indian Q1 FY2024 earnings so far have slightly exceeded expectations. • Nevertheless, the recent equity rally has further…

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US not ready to Samba

Aug 8, 2023

5:35 am

• US economy and markets struggling with uncertainty • Brazil, meanwhile, shows resilience as interest rates are falling and the economy is in good shape • Emerging market debt has been cheaper but still offers reasonable value • US inflation report this week will likely show still sticky core inflation • Oil prices continue to…

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Macro and Markets Monthly July 2023

Aug 3, 2023

10:28 am

In the early part of the month, the financial markets had fretted that global growth bordered on a mild recession. However, several data points from the US brought comfort. A robust sector quarter GDP report and evidence of a rebound in industrial confidence had economists upgrading their 2023 growth forecasts. Inflation is well off the…

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