Jun 21, 2021 10:39 am
• Markets reacted sharply to rising dots at the Fed • We find it difficult to square the near-term moves in long term US government bond yields with the likely direction of the markets over the medium term • Equities were overbought and vulnerable to the Fed news…but the medium-term still appears constructive • More…
Read MoreJun 14, 2021 10:27 am
• Bond market fails to be impressed by a record 5.0% US inflation. • The market’s characterisation of high inflation as ‘transitory’ is exaggerated, in our view. • Global core inflation at a 25-year high. • ESG and wage inflation could still spring a significant inflation surprise. • Fundamentally, a 1.45% 10-year government bond yield…
Read MoreJun 9, 2021 8:11 am
Last month the market capitalisation of companies listed on the BSE crossed USD 3trillion for the first time, doubling from USD 1.5trillion in March 2020. India first touched the USD 1trillion mark in May 2007, it took another 10 years to reach the next trillion. The last trillion has taken lesser than 4 years. India…
Read MoreJun 7, 2021 9:20 am
• US headline inflation due this week to be just shy of 5% • More pipeline inflation evident as parts of the world runs short of products and workers. • US year-end inflation forecast to still be around 2.5-3%. • We suspect the Fed will have to relent and allow the curve to steepen if…
Read MoreJun 2, 2021 8:52 am
Commentary May was a month where equity markets seemed to struggle a bit for direction, as inflation numbers from the US and some other countries began to show that the economic recovery post-Covid may bring inflation to go along with economic growth. The 1.4% gain in the overall MSCI World was driven by Europe (up…
Read MoreMay 31, 2021 10:23 am
• Another huge $6 trillion budget plan from President Biden • A focus on infrastructure to keep the US economy • Inflation still at large and surprising to the upside • Calls for earlier US rate rises seem misplaced; however the Fed might be wrong to suppress a rise in long term interest rates •…
Read MoreMay 24, 2021 8:15 am
• Cryptocurrencies under pressure as US and Chinese authorities squeeze Bitcoin • We strongly believe that cryptocurrencies, are here to stay in one form or another • Gold continues to push higher in the wake of crypto problems • US boom hits capacity constraints but they don’t diminish the upside • Europe’s economy, vaccinations and…
Read MoreMay 17, 2021 8:57 am
• Actual inflation is showing up in the numbers: PPI and CPI surprised to the upside. • US wage pressures are starting to build • COVID brings a confluence of additional factors that adds to the inflation argument • Bond markets have been surprisingly muted • Equity markets are favouring Financials and Materials over Technology…
Read MoreMay 10, 2021 11:07 am
• Mounting inflation pressures point to a new world of inflation away from the previous normal • US employment data was another clear signal of building wage inflation • Government bond yields anchored by central banks may save bonds for the moment • Equities to continue to rise in the absence of a marked rise…
Read MoreMay 5, 2021 4:53 am
• COVID challenges still abound – a smooth pick up in global growth not assured • The gold price may be a bellwether of investor concern’s about the spread of virus variants • Growth has pushed inflation pressures not seen in decades • Some inflation particularly in metals may stick for structural reasons • Japanese…
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