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Investment Strategy

May 15, 2024

9:34 am

• Fed almost rules out a rate hike; the market still expects two rate cuts, starting September 2024. • Geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East in April but now seem to have stabilized. • India’s PMIs are near all-time high, underscoring its economic resilience. • Q4FY24 earnings of Indian companies are broadly in line…

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A World of Contrasts

May 14, 2024

7:12 am

• Stagflation alarms in the US as household confidence drops sharply but inflation expectations inch up • Europe’s building growth story – strengthening consumer spending could pull the economy out of recession • China’s growing list of positives: (a) possible government stimulus, (b) potential QE, and (c) a sharp increase in share buybacks • Elections…

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Goldilocks makes a re-appearance

May 7, 2024

6:51 am

• Worse-than-expected US employment data leads to anticipation of rate cuts from September, aligning with a Goldilocks scenario. • Lower-than-expected US jobs growth offsets concerns from stronger inflation reports. • China’s potential quantitative easing boosts Chinese equities but risks upsetting the Goldilocks scenario. • Traders may see a growth surge and risk-on sentiment, especially in…

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Nothing is Straightforward

Apr 30, 2024

5:32 am

• US growth surprises to the downside but no one quite believes it • US inflation still persists • FOMC – expect more about the words than the action • Focus on ex US equity markets • China is back Last week’s US economic data showed that you can’t have entrenched views or exaggerated portfolio…

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