Aug 5, 2021 10:51 am
• The global growth story is intact, with the Delta variant, the caveat • US growth is now at the same level as pre-COVID, Europe should catchup by Christmas • US equities still lead the way • Asia is under pressure as China clamps down and vaccine rollout still relatively slow • Commodity price uptrend…
Read MoreAug 2, 2021 11:58 am
• The reasons for China’s equity market wobble were some years in coming. • President Xi Jinping has been very consistent in promoting a more socialist agenda for economic reform. • Investors will have to re-adjust their expectations for the future of previous growth industries in Edu-tech and internet related. • Good investment opportunities remain…
Read MoreJul 28, 2021 1:13 pm
• We worry that fear of what might happen, rather than what is happening, may hold policymakers back from re-opening and consumers from enjoying their newfound freedom. • Delta variant of COVID is a challenge to the momentum gained in the global economy. • Investors are watching for any signs of moderating growth after a…
Read MoreJul 19, 2021 12:13 pm
• US Inflation surprises (again) to the upside • More signs of less-than-transitory inflation • Blackrock shows there is real wage inflation • Still proving challenging to rationalise why the US bond market refuses to discount inflation risk rather than disinflation risk • Flooding in Northern Europe is a further reflection of global warming and…
Read MoreJul 13, 2021 12:00 am
• US bond market rally reflects technicals and not a material change in the inflation view • The Treasury uses cash not credit and floods the market with liquidity • We look to buy the setback in inflation plays in the equity market • ECB signals it wants to create more inflation • China eases…
Read MoreJul 12, 2021 8:41 am
On 20th April last year, crude futures dropped 306% to settle at negative $37.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. About fourteen months since, crude has moved all the way to $75/bbl. And it is not oil alone, there has been an 80-200% price movement across all industrial as well as agricultural commodities…
Read MoreJul 7, 2021 2:17 pm
Global Market Update We have had another quarter of global recovery, teemed with optimism and consumer confidence. ‘Revenge spending’ is moving from being a hypothesis to reality for a larger part of the globe. China was one of the first to open up and we saw the revenge spending trend there last year. All of…
Read MoreJul 5, 2021 10:35 am
• US nonfarm payroll data shows solid growth and inflation • IMF forecasts a US 10-year yield of 1.9% by year-end • Risks to the upside in oil prices and the energy sector • Global warming still evidently out of control • Our strategy–long equities, short duration, and long value Global macro data continues to…
Read MoreJul 2, 2021 1:06 pm
Review of June asset class returns US equities continued to lead equity market returns in June. US equities +2.2% contributed most of the Global Equity return of 1.7%. Asian markets were largely on the backfoot with a very modest return from Japan (+0.5%) and Asia ex Japan (-0.1%). Ongoing localised COVID related lockdowns, and a…
Read MoreJun 28, 2021 11:12 am
• Singapore leadership’s vision of COVID as an endemic and not a pandemic gives us a glimmer of hope that we will finally overcome the challenges of the past 18 months • Greater mobility and interaction between people could further facilitate the move to a more vibrant global economy • Hopes of further momentum in…
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