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MARKET COMMENTARY

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Political Challenges

Jun 11, 2024

6:58 am

• Geopolitical challenges so far have not stirred exaggerated volatility in the equity markets • India’s election results, an initial shock, but likely still constructive for markets • The bitterness of US elections to increasingly worry markets as the months go by • The 80 year cycle of “The Fourth Turning” • Europe challenged by…

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Macro and Markets Review for May 2024

Jun 4, 2024

8:39 am

There was quite a dispersion of economic data surprises around the world through May. Europe was the positive standout, with evidence of ongoing improvement in economic growth. Japan’s economic data deteriorated sharply at least until right at the end of the month when retail sales beat expectations. However, generally through the month Japan saw disappointing…

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Peaking Markets Range Trade

May 28, 2024

11:42 am

• Market debate remains on stickiness of inflation and slow pace of US rate cuts • US market concentration in big tech signals potential problems, but the sector continues to deliver • Old economy stocks struggle • UK’s Independence Day general election US bank leaders’ statements of caution We generally don’t echo the opinions of…

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No Easy Bets Except Maybe in Tech

May 21, 2024

10:13 am

• We still worry about US stagflation • We remain positive on European equities – lower inflation helps • Chinese equities challenged by weak data, but government action in the real estate sector provides support • Japan disappoints on growth but equities helped by reform • NVIDIA quarterly results likely to show that growth momentum…

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