Nov 9, 2021 6:31 am
• Central banks turning upbeat on economy on belief inflation to prove less transitory than thought. • Equities appear set to extend gains as central banks step away from tightening. • Third-quarter results so far have been robust, although economic data remains mixed, and markets look for greater clarity from the Fed. • Like some…
Read MoreNov 2, 2021 11:56 am
• The divergence between the Fed’s view and the market’s view on rates is growing • Higher yields have not hindered a surge in equities this month • The real test for the bond market lies in the future, not now • Energy prices keep surging as the northern winter approaches, adding inflation risk The…
Read MoreOct 26, 2021 5:45 am
• The market is starting to buy the inflation argument • Although Central Banks are still divided, the momentum is growing • Supply chain issues are becoming more visible, and energy price rises might be sticky • Bond markets are far more nervous about the outcome than equities The post-COVID recovery is turning out to…
Read MoreOct 20, 2021 7:20 am
Most of us would recall the heady days of real estate that dominated the first decade of this century. At the time, almost anybody with a large enough piece of land turned into a ‘developer’ as the business was extremely lucrative. A massive demand surge was followed by prices skyrocketing year after year, arguably to…
Read MoreOct 19, 2021 10:53 am
• Bond market appears to be discarding the transitory narrative in favour of a high inflation outcome • Equities, nevertheless, appear to have an upper hand at the moment as they brush off growth concerns • News out of China has not been encouraging, where the property sector is facing potentially existential issues The fight…
Read MoreOct 12, 2021 7:00 am
• Global equities holding in as bonds feel the pressure. • Investors will need to see downgrades to global growth abate for equities to push on. • Further signs of a re-opening of global travel bode well for renewed growth momentum. • The key risks are less than transitory inflation, particularly in energy prices and…
Read MoreOct 11, 2021 11:34 am
The RBI monetary policy committee (MPC) met in the backdrop of global central banks indicating taper. While the rates were expected to remain unchanged, which they did, eyes were on RBI’s liquidity stance. The RBI reaffirmed its commitment towards a gradual, calibrated withdrawal of excess liquidity by increasing the variable rate reserve repo VRRR auction…
Read MoreOct 6, 2021 9:28 am
The first half of this fiscal year is now behind us. Indian equities are up about 20% over the last 6 months, despite the second wave. Economic activity has rebounded sharply, the same is reflected in resilient earnings as well. Market participants, including us, will be watching the trajectory of both the macro data and…
Read MoreOct 5, 2021 8:20 am
• Both equities and bonds end almost flat for the third quarter • EM equities the standout; China down 18%, India up 12% • Equities need some better news, and a potentially significant reduction in COVID restrictions would help • Japanese equities still have a lot of potential • Energy prices have further upside Although…
Read MoreSep 28, 2021 6:55 am
• The Fed’s policy stance has undergone a subtle but significant hawkish shift • Bond markets noticed, and yields rose • The start of higher rates may now be in 2022, and not 2023 • US government shutdown talks gain momentum • Evergrande, no news is not good news Last Wednesday’s Fed meeting brought a…
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