Feb 24, 2022 12:26 am
• The geopolitical risks – and not a new macroeconomic regime – are the markets’ latest worry. • The stakes are high as an attack on Ukraine by Russian forces appears imminent. • Europe politically may never look the same, raising uncertainty in the region. • With inflation continuing to be a vexing problem, markets…
Read MoreFeb 17, 2022 8:59 am
• Inflation keeps surprising on the upside • Ukraine conflict adds upward pressure via the energy channel • Inflation markets may not be fully discounting the risks The persistence of inflation against expectations and the ongoing surprises to the upside have overwhelmed the markets somewhat. Inflation has already been high for some time now, but…
Read MoreFeb 9, 2022 7:34 am
• Watch out for US inflation data this coming week it could be ugly. • US labour market data was strong but full of unprecedented revisions. • The 5.7% annualised increase in US hourly wages adds to the inflation risks. • US 10-year yields look set to push through 2.0% • US small caps look…
Read MoreFeb 4, 2022 12:24 am
• The Fed appears to be on the path of “nimble” policymaking, hoping to get a grip on inflation soon. • While inflation was of global central banks’ making, they now realise that they bit off more than they can chew. • The probability of at least five rate hikes by the Fed this year…
Read MoreFeb 2, 2022 7:10 am
A budget that did not have many surprises yet has teeth to push India’s growth story. The central themes are (a) push to infrastructure and manufacturing and (b) keep development apace in sunrise sectors. Since the covid outbreak, the finance ministry has been taking a series of steps to ease pain and aid recovery with…
Read MoreJan 27, 2022 12:24 am
• US equity market sell-off shouldn’t be taken a marker for all equity markets • US equities, particularly tech was very fully valued • Netflix share price drop fully justified • Asia, in particular, could do well if the re-opening trade takes hold as countries follow the UK’s lead of no masks and no social…
Read MoreJan 19, 2022 6:32 am
• Market expectations for interest rate moves have changed materially • Other policy measures are also being discounted • The shift to value will be helped by higher rates • Low duration fixed income is still the place to be, with patience required in the near term We are through the first fortnight of 2022…
Read MoreJan 18, 2022 6:32 am
As we wave farewell to 2021, we pause briefly to reflect on what will shape markets and investment strategy in 2022 and beyond. Inevitably, the effects of the global pandemic will still be with us for a long time, but there is more to the future than that. Global central banks will deal with rising…
Read MoreJan 11, 2022 9:40 am
• 2022 has started with markets on the backfoot • Technology stocks have retreated as bond yields have crossed last year’s high • The Fed has signalled that it will take inflation threats seriously • Labour market conditions are getting tighter The year just gone by will be remembered not just for the ravages of…
Read MoreJan 5, 2022 5:27 am
In contrast to previous years, the total returns on global equities and bonds were quite divergent in 2021. While equities returned a strong +21.8%, global bonds nursed losses of 4.7%. Equity returns were led by the S&P500, which gave a total return of 28.7% including dividends reinvested. The 28.7% annual return was sharply above the…
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