The Fed’s Close Call

Sep 17, 2024

7:44 am

• We are hopeful that the Fed will deliver a 50bps rate cut, if not the market will likely be disappointed • A new Fed ‘dot plot’ should forecast a steady drop in policy rates over the coming 15 months • The Bank of Japan to signal further rate rises, but no move likely at…

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Investment Strategy

Sep 19, 2024

8:53 am

• US Fed actions continue to be in focus for global markets. • US Jobs data is being revised downwards, and US bankruptcy filings have increased. • India’s economic growth remains resilient and increase in capacity utilisation suggests that private capex should also pick up soon. • We are gradually underweighting equities and prefer large…

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We Need Central Banks to Step on the Gas

Sep 10, 2024

1:02 pm

• Investors fret that US economic data does not emphatically push the Fed to provide a 50bps rate cut this month • Marked profit-taking in the equity markets suggests that investors want to see an acceleration of monetary easing • A slow pace of monetary easing is a concern for many who worry about the…

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Macro and Markets Review for August 2024

Sep 5, 2024

6:07 am

The month’s feature was the massive spike in market volatility after the Bank of Japan surprised the market by increasing interest rates, and worse than expected US employment data led to fears of a US recession. The rise in BoJ rates led to a significant closing off of the so-called Yen carry trade, where investors…

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