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MARKET COMMENTARY

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Portfolio Commentary

Jul 18, 2024

8:31 am

Quarterly Roundup • The markets kept crawling up during the quarter amid heightened volatility around the general elections. • If the earnings continue to grow, there shouldn’t be a significant threat to long-term equity returns. • The granular election results don’t look so favourable for the current dispensation, which went quite confidently into the elections…

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The Folly of the Fed’s Last Dot Plot

Jul 16, 2024

9:09 am

• Good US inflation report increases hopes for a rate cut no later than in September • US Core CPI has fallen to 2.1% in Q2 from 4.2% in Q1 • The prospect of a rate cut should help equities hold up despite weaker-than-expected growth data • Equity market rotation into interest rate-sensitives and small…

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Investment Strategy

Jul 10, 2024

11:37 am

• Dichotomy of headline data persists in the US. • Global equity markets remain buoyant, led by the US technology sector. • We maintain a neutral stance on Indian equity due to elevated valuations. • We prefer duration in the Indian bond market, given favourable supply-demand dynamics. The McKelvey Rule For the past few months,…

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A July Rate Cut?

Jul 9, 2024

9:43 am

• US economic data currently lends itself to earlier rate cuts • The ISM Service Sector index was sharply weaker • The Fed might consider a rate cut at its July meeting • We expect selective interest rate-sensitive sectors to perform • US 2-year government bond yield on track to decline to 4.2% Maybe, just…

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