Jul 25, 2022 11:16 am
The month gone by was not too different from the month before. The same factors, i.e., inflation, rate hikes, and impending-recession-haunted markets, and the indices, both headline, and broader markets, dived to a new correction low. The headline indices missed running into the bear market territory by a small margin, and the mid-cap index officially…
Read MoreJul 20, 2022 7:30 am
• US inflation surprises to the upside but the markets take it in their stride • Fed looks minded to raise rates by 75bps or more • We suspect that while inflation will fall back it may persist for far longer than the markets will be comfortable with • China’s growth disappoints but still has…
Read MoreJul 12, 2022 11:30 am
• The Fed reminds the market of its intention to increase rates markedly and at speed • US corporate results from banking sector due this week as well as inflation report • Global energy sector looks good value despite the debate about the path for oil prices • Europe looks vulnerable to further currency weakness…
Read MoreJul 8, 2022 11:06 am
In 1913 when the U.S. Federal Reserve Board came into existence, containing inflation and limiting economic swings were its key mandates. Ironically, today the Fed has been the primary source of inflation, and the U.S. is likely already into a technical recession. The Atlanta Fed has cut its GDP forecast to -2.1% Gears of conversation…
Read MoreJul 6, 2022 8:28 am
• Asset markets have a poor quarter • Equity losses focused on tech and economic sensitive sectors • Investment grade bonds maintain the momentum of losses seen in Q1 • High yield and Emerging market debt performs likely equity with heavy losses • Investors move into the third quarter fearing recession and hoping that central…
Read MoreJun 29, 2022 8:50 am
• A positive week in the markets provides some stability but does not indicate that all is well • Growth data remains weak and inflation threatening • Central banks remain hawkish and vigilant • Government bonds in US and Europe find support and sit in a defined trading range • We are on wage inflation…
Read MoreJun 27, 2022 9:03 am
The long earnings season has ended with decent performance amid challenging market conditions. The outlook, though, remains mixed as companies battle high input costs and supply-side issues. Total sales for the Nifty 200 universe grew 21% YoY, primarily led by Oil & Gas, Metals, Financial Services, and IT. EBITDA ex-BFSI increased 11.1%, marred by intense…
Read MoreJun 21, 2022 11:03 am
• Central banks are all at sea with reactionary and often poorly signalled rate shifts • The probability of global recession steps up as economic data disappoints • Surveys of US smaller companies show unprecedented stress in the economy • Bank shares look vulnerable after performance that has been in line with the market •…
Read MoreJun 15, 2022 1:08 pm
Over the last week, the Monetary Policy Committee met and decided to raise policy rates by 50 bps to 4.9%, which was largely in line with the market and our expectations. The RBI acknowledged higher inflation by hiking inflation forecasts by 100 bps but kept growth forecasts unchanged, probably waiting for more data on the…
Read MoreJun 14, 2022 8:54 am
• US inflation data a massive wake up call to the market • Central Banks will scramble to get ahead of the curve • Bonds and equities remain vulnerable • China one of the few bright spots The message is crystal clear: Do not bury your head in the sand. There is real trouble out…
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