market-commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY

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A Tale of Three Central Banks

Jul 30, 2024

6:19 am

• Fed, BoJ and the UK MPC meet this week with all meetings having scope surprise • The Fed seems likely to leave rates unchanged but to give a clearer direction that the scope for rate cuts is opening up • The BoJ and UK MPC have an opportunity to change rates in keeping with…

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Volatility Spikes on The Twists and Turns of Geopolitics

Jul 23, 2024

6:52 am

• US Presidential election twists and turns are centre stage of a further rise in market geopolitical concerns • President Biden’s decision to stand down may help to dampen some of the more extreme alarm about a Trump Presidency • Rising/stubbornly high long term US interest rates indicate market concern about the long term US…

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Portfolio Commentary

Jul 18, 2024

8:31 am

Quarterly Roundup • The markets kept crawling up during the quarter amid heightened volatility around the general elections. • If the earnings continue to grow, there shouldn’t be a significant threat to long-term equity returns. • The granular election results don’t look so favourable for the current dispensation, which went quite confidently into the elections…

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The Folly of the Fed’s Last Dot Plot

Jul 16, 2024

9:09 am

• Good US inflation report increases hopes for a rate cut no later than in September • US Core CPI has fallen to 2.1% in Q2 from 4.2% in Q1 • The prospect of a rate cut should help equities hold up despite weaker-than-expected growth data • Equity market rotation into interest rate-sensitives and small…

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