Dec 28, 2021 6:25 am
India has been steadily gaining share of global manufacturing value add for several years. However, despite the share gains over the years the share in the pie remains abysmally low at 3.2% of the global manufacturing GVA, compared to 12% for agriculture. India’s manufactured goods exports grew 42% in CY21YTD, compared to global growth in…
Read MoreDec 21, 2021 6:26 am
• Central banks are raising rates and paring bond buying in their attempt to rein in inflation • The market now expects the Fed to institute three rate hikes in 2022 • The Bank of England, in an unexpected move last week, voted overwhelmingly in favor of a rate hike • The ECB, meanwhile, appears…
Read MoreDec 14, 2021 4:26 am
• Global markets lurch from nervous to ecstatic. We expect the more to positive tone to persist • We see equities benefiting as a mix of good global growth, peaking inflation and somewhat modest monetary tightening keeps the risk-on sentiment intact • This week’s Fed meeting, could see the Fed announce a tapering of its…
Read MoreDec 9, 2021 11:11 am
Only since a few days was the world collectively heaving a sigh of relief and anticipating a return to normalcy after Delta cases receded and vaccinations/boosters shot count climbed. The newly identified Omicron variant has set anxiety levels soaring back again as initial reports suggest it is highly transmissible. The high transmissibility was somewhat extrapolated…
Read MoreDec 7, 2021 6:01 am
• Omicron has shown that COVID is simply not transitory • The Fed no longer considers inflation to be transitory, yet the policymakers’ response to the COVID crisis is increasingly coming into question • The 10-year yield hovers under 1.40%, but it neither discounts the underlying growth in the US nor the risk of inflation…
Read MoreNov 30, 2021 7:05 am
• Omicron, the new COVID strain overwhelmed markets last week, but concerns appear misplaced as of now • The initial impression about the new variant is still sketchy and clarity will likely emerge over the coming days • For European equities, already grappling with ECB’s inflation stance and spiking infection levels, Omicron appeared to have…
Read MoreNov 23, 2021 5:54 am
• Economic growth remains hot in the US, but worryingly it is causing inflation, which remains stubbornly high • Despite surging COVID infections across Europe and parts of the US, full-scale lockdowns are unlikely and any impact on growth should be “transitory” • Nevertheless, the fresh wave of infections in Europe has prompted some economists…
Read MoreNov 17, 2021 5:39 am
Indian markets have witnessed a stupendous rally over the last one and a half years partly driven by the economic recovery post the pandemic led meltdown and partly owing to the optimism in investor sentiments. Nifty has returned more than 50% over the last one year with only two months of negative returns. With such…
Read MoreNov 16, 2021 4:45 am
After two decades of falling inflation, it is now quite understandable that central bankers are reluctant to acknowledge that we may have an inflation problem at hand. However, these are the same central bankers who negotiated the previous inflation challenge so ‘well’ that they had to spend the last 15 years trying to re-create it….
Read MoreNov 11, 2021 10:20 am
Finally, the US Fed has turned towards the normalization of its economy. To stimulate the economy after the Covid outbreak, the US had increased the money supply by roughly 30% in less than two years. In its latest meeting, the Fed announced tapering of quantitative easing (QE) by USD 15 billion a month. At that…
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