Mar 25, 2023 9:08 am
Impact of Taxation Change of Non-equity MFs In a surprise move late last night, the government announced a proposal to amend the taxation on non- equity mutual funds. The same was passed into a bill earlier today. As per the current understanding this is a very significant announcement which will have a structural impact on…
Read MoreMar 22, 2023 11:31 am
Weathering the Storm It hasn’t been the best of times for equity investors. Twelve months index returns to end February were 3% for the Nifty, 6.7% for the Midcap 100 Index, and a negative 7% for the small-cap index. The broader indices – Nifty 200 and Nifty 500 – delivered marginally positive, low single-digit returns….
Read MoreMar 21, 2023 4:31 am
• We retain our cautious view on both bonds and equities • The booming venture capital industry where exaggerated activity reflected ultra-easy monetary conditions for too long was an accident waiting to happen • The Fed is reversing balance sheet reduction while trying to keep its credibility to tackle inflation • The risk is of…
Read MoreMar 14, 2023 10:44 am
The global venture capital industry was in a significant crisis over the weekend as Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the banker to the US VC industry, collapsed on Friday. SVB’s demise made it the largest bank failure in the United States since Washington Mutual went bust in 2008. The implosion of SVB – a storied US…
Read MoreMar 9, 2023 2:12 pm
• Global markets reassessed the Fed’s policy path and corrected last month. • Fed may keep rates higher for longer, which could impact US growth later this year. • US bond yields are attractive, but volatility could continue. • US equity valuations are still not cheap, leaving room for further downside. • Indian equity valuations…
Read MoreMar 8, 2023 9:20 am
• US wage growth surprises to the upside, and growth data better than expected. • European inflation forecasts on the rise • US 10-year bond yield consolidates at around 4%, but investor complacency still evident • China’s economic growth forecasts disappoint; we remain constructive on the equity market • ADNOC shatters records with $124bn subscribed…
Read MoreFeb 28, 2023 7:21 am
• Further evidence of a resurgence in US inflation • Fed has a headache – we expect them to raise rates by 75bps over the next two meetings • US 10-year bond yield likely to push through 4% but still not a ‘real’ yield • Equities still have downside risk particularly in the US •…
Read MoreFeb 23, 2023 5:52 am
Pockets of optimism January proved challenging for the markets, which declined 2-3% across the board. However, the fall in mid and small caps was consistent with the fall in headline indices, which is a refreshing change given their high beta nature. The earnings season, which began this month, thus far has been in line with…
Read MoreFeb 21, 2023 5:28 am
• US core inflation is re-accelerating • Fed will have to work harder to slow growth • Longer dated US government bonds closer to fair value – but only if year-end inflation forecasts are correct • The market has been very poor at forecasting inflation • Equity markets have downside risk If there ever was…
Read MoreFeb 13, 2023 10:50 am
• The bond market finally realises the Fed might be right • Money market now prices rates above 5% and a slow decline • Bond yields up sharply and 10 year likely headed for 3.90% • Equity rally stalls and further mixed trading very likely • Only Asian equites and preferred bonds on our buying…
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