Dec 12, 2022 12:36 pm
• The Fed, ECB and UK MPC are all likely to raise rates by 50bps this coming week • US producer price inflation showed surprising strength next up CPI • US inflation trends likely exacerbated by recent weakness of the dollar • The re-opening of China can only add to some of the global inflation…
Read MoreDec 7, 2022 6:27 am
• Global equities rally on the back of likely slower Fed rate hikes but terminal rates likely to be higher than anticipated earlier. • PMI data across geographies in contraction zone. India amongst the few exceptions. • Despite incremental improvement in data, Eurozone worries are far from over. • Large scale protests in China against…
Read MoreDec 5, 2022 7:20 am
• Market is pricing the dream that interest rates will peak at a reasonable level and fall back quickly in the second half of 2023. • More likely that rates will peak and stay a high level for much of 2023 • Slack will have to be created in the global economy which puts corporate…
Read MoreNov 29, 2022 8:53 am
• Extraordinary inversion of the US yield curve • We believe it is more likely that the US 10-year government bond yield moves back to the 4.00%-4.25% • We prefer short duration • We warn investors not to underestimate the risk to the upside for the oil price • We expect Russia/OPEC to protect the…
Read MoreNov 23, 2022 9:23 am
Where do we head when the printers stop The month gone by was a rebound time for markets across the globe. All major global indices rallied from the bottom, while the Indian headline indices continued their outperformance and inched closer to their previous highs. A few sectoral indices like Banks, Autos, and FMCG hit new…
Read MoreNov 21, 2022 8:50 am
• Markets pause as the bullish view sobers up • Fed speakers reiterate their intention to keep tightening • Data shows US household debt accumulation as consumers use credit cards to maintain spending power • Asia has the opportunity – and ability – to outperform but meaningful collective policy making is still absent • The…
Read MoreNov 15, 2022 10:00 am
• Better-than-expected US inflation data boosts the markets’ mood • Inflation, though, is not beaten and growth is on the wane • Crypto industry challenges show that risks lurk in the financial system • We continue to favour non-US equity markets although we would not rush back into equities at present • As the hopes…
Read MoreNov 14, 2022 9:38 am
• Signs of trouble in UK real estate markets even as G-sec markets calmed down. Real estate prices declining even in US and Canada • All asset classes rallied amid less hawkish Fed commentary • Indian markets also rallied, though there was divergence across sectors and market caps • Corporate results in India have been…
Read MoreNov 7, 2022 9:55 am
• Central bank policy starts to diverge as they get beyond knee jerk rate rises • Thus far the rise in yields explains the fall in equity markets • US equities are particularly vulnerable to future downgrades to profit forecast • European equities have already suffered a deep derating • Rumours of a re-opening of…
Read MoreNov 1, 2022 5:50 am
• Some hope in the market that central banks will start to be less aggressive with rate increases • We believe there is scope for disappointment this week with the Fed and UK MPC likely to emphasise the need for further marked tightening. • The REITs sector had reason to rebound and may still be…
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