May 9, 2023 2:00 am
• Economic data points to robust growth and persistence of inflation • Bonds price recession – investor worry building in high yield spreads • Dollar weakness has helped gold to push higher • Emerging market may see the earlier peak in policy rates and be the first to benefit from a cut in rates. Recent…
Read MoreMay 5, 2023 9:31 am
• Continued macro ambiguity as both growth and inflation remain elevated. • US corporate earnings have surprised positively but could enter an earnings recession. • Indian corporate earnings have been mixed so far. • In uncertain times, revisiting overall strategic asset allocation may be prudent. • A slowdown in private market deal velocity suggests more…
Read MoreMay 2, 2023 9:17 am
A recent improvement in investor sentiment cannot disguise persistent structural weaknesses • UK economy has rebounded from its winter freeze • Structural challenges, though, leave the outlook quite uncertain • UK is struggling to position itself as relevant in the global economy • Interest rates have a bias to be higher than expected, which should…
Read MoreApr 25, 2023 5:44 am
• The market is split between two distinct views on inflation – higher for longer and heading lower quite soon • Despite talks of a recession, global growth has surprised to the upside; and modestly, inflation too • US corporate results so far are much better than (downgraded) expectations • ETF flows suggest investors making…
Read MoreApr 20, 2023 6:44 am
The manufacturing promise The Indian financial year concluded last month, and the headline indices saw a flat close in a highly volatile year. The broader market saw some divergence as the midcap 100 index closed with a return of 1.5%, while the smallcap 100 index closed in deep red with a negative 14% return. As…
Read MoreApr 18, 2023 6:29 am
• US equities at 60-65% of the global equity market index looks to be emphatically peaking • The experience of the peaking of Japanese equities in late 1980’s and early 1990’s may be relevant • Emerging markets are substantially unrepresented in global equity portfolios given their share of global GDP • We continue with a…
Read MoreApr 11, 2023 5:00 am
• A Federal Reserve rate cut requires a marked deterioration in the US economy and/or a financial crisis • Chinese equity market needs a revival of consumption, and so does the government History says a Fed rate cut is not on the cards Looking back at the history of the circumstances that led to a…
Read MoreApr 6, 2023 6:47 am
• Stress in the US and European banks is unlikely to lead to contagion, amid swift central bank actions. • Central banks continue to hike rates, even as the market expects them to pivot. • We suggest investors exercise caution but not miss out on opportunities that may arise. • Change in taxation of non-equity…
Read MoreApr 4, 2023 9:23 am
• Markets rally but only after a banking crisis caused jitters • Equities and bonds give good returns • The market assumes the Fed will back off from a tight monetary policy • Growth remains robust—and inflation is still a problem The just-concluded first quarter was a roller coaster. Just as the worries about higher…
Read MoreMar 28, 2023 4:53 am
• The banking sector is likely to remain the epicentre of investor fear • Market focus has switched away from bank runs to exposure to commercial real estate • Deutsche Bank is not Credit Suisse despite its share price following the same path • Investors switch into money market funds from bank deposits is a…
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