Jun 27, 2023 5:45 am
• Geopolitics continues to unnerve markets globally • US dollar, gold, and the bond market likely to be the kneejerk assets of choice • UK MPC sprang a surprise and raised rates by 50bps • UK longer dated gilts hold in but two year bond yields spike • European growth tips down and may take…
Read MoreJun 21, 2023 9:22 am
The Valuation Conundrum • Nifty seems to be following the valuation discipline quite well. • Buy-at-any-price is losing steam. • Entry valuations matter a lot while constructing portfolios. • Portfolio outcomes are generally better when one doesn’t pay too much. Headline indices ended last month with respectable gains of over 2%, while small and midcap…
Read MoreJun 20, 2023 6:31 am
• The Fed takes a breather, but ‘promises’ two further rate rises • UK MPC could spring a surprise and raise by 50bps this week • Bank of Japan still waiting for an opportune time to adapt their monetary policy – bad news for the Yen • US equities a reflection of the tech sector…
Read MoreJun 13, 2023 5:11 am
• The Fed is likely to skip this meeting and leave a rate rise for July • Central banks of Australia and Canada both surprise the market with a policy rate rise • ECB expected to raise rates by 25bps with an outside chance of an adjustment of policy in Japan • Japanese equites continued…
Read MoreJun 7, 2023 11:35 am
• Debt markets have finally aligned themselves with the Fed’s stance of higher-for-longer rates. • Mega-cap stocks in the US have led the rally but look vulnerable again. • We are neutral on equities, with a slight positive bias, as still-not-cheap valuations offset strong economic and earnings growth. • We remain overweight on Gold as…
Read MoreJun 6, 2023 6:00 am
• A strong US labour market raises hopes of a soft landing • However, while the market disagrees, we expect the Fed to react by raising rates still further – maybe as early as this month • If a Fed rate increase were to not materialise in June, economically sensitive equity sectors could rally further…
Read MoreMay 30, 2023 6:42 am
• US and UK inflation surprises to the upside • Market now prices a high risk of a further 25ps Fed rate increase at June meeting • US 10-year government bond yield getting closer to offering real value • Bank of England lacking credibility in its inflation fight The market’s wishful thinking is not coming…
Read MoreMay 23, 2023 5:54 am
• The current rally in Japanese equity market looks well supported by evolving positives • Ongoing corporate restructuring should facilitate a further material rise in the equity market • Relative to history a further 10% rally in the Nikkei 225 is not ruled out • Chinese equities, on the other hand, have been beaten up…
Read MoreMay 17, 2023 11:57 am
Taking stock of market internals • The market has spent longer in the current consolidation than its historical average. • Despite a lot of pressure from laggard sectors, markets have been resilient. • More than half of the sectors that make up Nifty are already leading the market. • As the selling in laggard sectors…
Read MoreMay 16, 2023 11:21 am
• The drop in US inflation leaves long-term interest rates closer to real returns but not quite • US inflation expectations are still on the rise potentially pushing the case that bonds yields are not yet attractive enough for wholesale buying. • Mixed economic data shows robust growth but clouds on the horizon from higher…
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