Sep 21, 2023 12:01 pm
• The trend in PSUs and business-to-government (B2G) sectors like defence and railways has surprised the investing crowd. • It’s essential to realise the importance of “newness” in investing. • Investors have traditionally ignored the newness factor in emerging themes. • History is replete with examples of how the evolution of humankind has happened because…
Read MoreSep 20, 2023 7:03 am
• Fed to leave rates unchanged, but signaling is evident that its job is not done • ECB raises rates by 25bps and signals rates to stay high for some time • Government bond yields pushing higher – oil prices a risk • China gives us some good news but foreign investors show little appetite…
Read MoreSep 18, 2023 10:56 am
• Global equity momentum moderated in August amid weak economic data. • US economy is showing resilience, but conflicting data continues to emerge. • Eurozone is at a greater risk of recession as it faces stagflation. • Indian fundamentals strong; risk likely to emanate from global factors. • We look at add equities on dips;…
Read MoreSep 12, 2023 5:41 am
• Major development at G20, not to be underestimated – India-Middle East- Europe Economic Corridor • More evidence of robust growth and inflation in US • Oil prices remain on a tear • China’s political challenges from within *Breaking News – India- Middle East – Europe Economic Corridor* Do not underestimate one of the key…
Read MoreSep 8, 2023 4:09 am
The global economy has become one of marked contrasts between the robustness of US growth and the struggles of Europe, particularly China. Robust economic data out of the US in the early phase of the month led to economists upgrading their GDP forecasts. Indeed, the Nowcast data from the Atlanta Fed had the US growing…
Read MoreSep 5, 2023 1:38 pm
• Both equities and bonds delivered negative returns in August in a positively corelated way • Ongoing gap between Fed’s signalling on rates and the market’s forecast • Market prices no further rate hikes and five Fed funds rate cuts by the end of 2024 • China sees a modicum of better news after foreign…
Read MoreAug 29, 2023 6:58 am
• Central bankers signal higher for longer, but watching the data • ECB Lagarde refers to a “new playbook” • BRICS broadens, underlining the profound change in the power of the so-called emerging markets • China still struggles to placate the ongoing angst among investors • China’s political thought at odds with capitalist financial markets…
Read MoreAug 26, 2023 2:30 am
The recession in the distance • A twenty-month rate hike cycle hasn’t triggered a recession. • The US economy is defying all odds. • Past recessions give cues about the severity of market decline from an economic downturn. • Growth in earnings along with correction has improved valuations of Indian equities. • The valuations now…
Read MoreAug 22, 2023 6:42 am
• A reaccelerating global growth has economists having to consider much higher long-term interest rates • Meanwhile, economists have revised up third-quarter growth forecasts on strong end-consumer demand • Historical precedents suggest a 5% US 10-year government bond yield is possible • Japan delivers a huge upward surprise on GDP growth • Prospects of higher…
Read MoreAug 16, 2023 7:26 am
• US inflation better, but not comfortably reverting to the Fed target • Market appears too optimistic in expecting Fed rate cuts early next year • Remember US growth forecasts are rising and the labour market remains tight • China’s economic challenges deepen with more trouble in the real estate sector • Italy makes a…
Read More
