market-commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY

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Was This Really Necessary?

Apr 7, 2025

11:38 am

• There was no discernible crisis so why the emergency tariffs? • A recession and a spike in US inflation to 5% appear quite possible • The Fed may cut rates, but it might be reluctant at this stage • The end of US exceptionalism risks further relative underperformance of US equities • Central bankers…

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Q1 2025 Macro and Markets Quarterly Review

Apr 3, 2025

1:34 pm

As President Trump began issuing a wave of executive orders, the global economic outlook quickly became more complex. Governments around the world were compelled to respond to a series of challenges sparked by what is shaping up to be a transformational set of policies—policies that may well herald a new world order. To be fair,…

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Are You Ready for Liberation?

Apr 1, 2025

12:32 pm

This week, I was reminded by my former JPMorgan colleague, Tim Harris, that it’s now the 25th anniversary of the tech wreck of 2000. That anniversary stirred memories of a pivotal moment in my career—just over 25 years ago, in February 2000, I stood on Wall Street addressing the International Advisory Board of JPMorgan. In…

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Market Rotation

Mar 25, 2025

9:40 am

• Buy-the-dip helps US equities to edge higher, as other markets are quiet • US equities though, are hampered by challenging technicals and weak earnings revisions • Chinese equities slide as India improves • The Fed is on hold, maybe until the end of the year We observed a subtle shift in market dynamics last…

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