Nov 7, 2023 10:22 am
• The market’s positive reaction to last week’s news flow was exaggerated by the closing of an enormous, short treasury position in the market • Given elevated volatility in asset markets now is not the time to take outsize risk positions • We see signs of weakening US growth, however the read through is not…
Read MoreNov 3, 2023 10:21 am
Through October, dat reports for the global economy showed stronger-than-expected growth in the United States and some stabilisation in China. Third quarter US GDP growth came in well ahead of expectations at 4.9%. Still, strong consumer spending growth was a positive feature (Chart 1). The sharp increase in inventories means that the headline growth somewhat…
Read MoreNov 1, 2023 7:20 am
• US Q3 GDP growth was big surprise to the market keeping up the pressure for higher rates • FOMC is unlikely to raise rates this week but will likely express their intense vigilance • In the equity market higher long term yields will pressure growth sectors such as Tech • The tech sector has…
Read MoreOct 31, 2023 8:48 am
Taking stock of portfolios • The usual star sectors of the market, like financials and consumers, have taken a back seat in the current rally. • Since equity markets witness sector rotation we have seen loss of interest in the quality theme. • Valuations have gotten attractive as the market performance has been comparatively subdued…
Read MoreOct 24, 2023 4:49 am
• Signs that investors are expecting higher inflation for much longer • Geopolitical challenges in the Middle East continue to generate inflation risk • Bond market volatility visibly on the rise • More corporates allude to the economic cost of high rates • Remain tactically cautiously invested In our latest presentation to a discerning group…
Read MoreOct 17, 2023 7:37 am
The Middle East is at the centre of global geopolitics once again – and this time for some very unfortunate reasons. Whether the developments will have a bearing on the financial markets is something that only time will tell, but the profound human suffering that has affected so many lives will certainly affect our collective…
Read MoreOct 13, 2023 9:47 am
• Global economy faces headwinds. • India growth resilient despite global challenges. • Indian bonds likely to be range bound as RBI counterbalances bond inclusion cheer. • Better value in large cap relative to mid and small cap stocks in the medium term. Odd Man Out Mixed global macro-economic data has now been crying wolf…
Read MoreOct 10, 2023 8:49 am
• It would be a mistake to believe that bond yields will revert back to the average of the last decade • Instead we see fair value for the US 10 year bond yield at 4-5% into the medium term • Spike higher in US industrial confidence argues for a rebound in equities through the…
Read MoreOct 3, 2023 9:46 am
• Bonds and equities give negative returns for the quarter • The sharp rise in long term interest rates weighs heavily on the markets • Much higher oil prices propels more inflation and the equity oil sector • High yield bonds look vulnerable to a correction – EM debt less so • Japanese growth still…
Read MoreSep 26, 2023 5:32 am
• US Fed signals the need for further tightening and the persistence of high rates • US 10-year government bond yield is still vulnerable to spiking to as high as 5% • With the Central Bank of Brazil in easing mode, Latam debt remains well supported • Bank of Japan on hold, but may be…
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