Feb 14, 2024 1:44 pm
• The global economic outlook remains cloudy, despite the Fed dropping ‘recession’ from its December projections. • Magnificent-7 continue to dominate the S&P 500, both in terms of price performance and earnings expectations. • India’s interim budget maintained its focus on development and inclusion on expected lines. • The midcap rally is largely attributed to…
Read MoreFeb 13, 2024 6:23 am
• Combination of good growth and market hopes for rate cuts underpins markets • US inflation data this week sees headline inflation likely drop back but there are still pockets of inflation strength • US CRE problems not helped by Chinese dumping of US assets – however the US problems don’t translate into a big…
Read MoreFeb 6, 2024 11:01 am
• US economic data continues strong, under pinning equity market rally • US economic data flows only supports Fed reticence to the cut rates • Some signs that the best of the global disinflation news may be behind us • As we fret about China, Korean and Taiwanese equity market look to be on a…
Read MoreJan 30, 2024 7:46 am
• US economic data surprises to the upside • Fed likely to signal that rates may have peaked but it is likely in no rush to signal a cut • US politics looks dysfunctional and worrying for the longer term • Investors should question why they allocate 60-70% of their equity exposure to a country…
Read MoreJan 23, 2024 10:08 am
• We highlighted last week that the economic data flow could not stay at neutral • In the US consumer spending surprises to the upside as does consumer confidence • The UK sees an unfortunate spike in inflation • Oil risk about balanced, in a complicated market • Global bond markets witness a sharp rise…
Read MoreJan 19, 2024 10:21 am
• Global economy faces headwinds. • India’s growth remains resilient despite global challenges • Indian bonds are likely to be range-bound as the RBI counterbalances bond inclusion cheer. • Better value in large-cap relative to mid and small-cap stocks in the medium term. The Year of the Humble Pie 2023 will go down in history…
Read MoreJan 16, 2024 7:54 am
• With US economic surprises close to neutral the markets are looking for new trends • We suspect that markets are mistakenly pricing a soft landing • US economic growth momentum may depend on a resurgent consumer • Taiwan’s not for turning – near-term challenge from China should already be discounted • China has growth,…
Read MoreJan 9, 2024 8:13 am
• From the exuberance of 2023 the markets transition to 2024 has been patchy • Over the past two years asset markets have moved sideward and market has started the year with some nervousness • Flat earnings and higher interest rates do not bode well for the US equity market’s relative performance • Global growth…
Read MoreJan 4, 2024 10:05 am
2023 in the context of 2022 It’s shocking but true that the global equity market return (in USD) has hardly provided a positive total return in the past two years, and the NASDAQ index even gave a negative return. It’s important to keep this in mind when reflecting on 2023, as it’s easy to get…
Read MoreJan 3, 2024 7:55 am
As we step into a new year, its crucial to understand the evolving landscape of financial markets. We look back to draw lessons and try to gauge what can be set right. We dwell on the happenings of the year gone by and try to understand what can go right – and wrong – for…
Read More
