Apr 12, 2024 11:12 am
• The Fed dot plot continues to suggest three rate cuts in 2023, despite persistent inflation. • Crude oil prices are inching higher, a key risk for India and the resurgence of global inflation. • Global equity momentum persists, with Japanese and US equities leading the rally. • The RBI maintained status quo across all…
Read MoreApr 9, 2024 8:31 am
• The US employment report shows the economy is running hot • US government bonds take fright as US 10-year yields surge to 4.40% and high-yield bonds show some vulnerability • European and emerging debt markets somewhat decouple from the US trouble • Gold still preferred as a way of de-risking dollar cash holdings •…
Read MoreApr 2, 2024 6:14 am
• Japanese equities were the star of the just-concluded quarter • US equities, meanwhile, benefitted from strong performances from software, insurance, and energy sectors • As China stabilises, investors wonder if this could be Asia’s quarter • US Treasuries receive good support in the final auctions of the quarter, after some lacklustre performance Japan led…
Read MoreMar 26, 2024 9:05 am
• The FOMC is evenly split between those seeing only modest rate Fed rate cuts and those the expecting far more • The market believes the dovish view of a soft landing and reversion of inflation to target • SNB cuts rates – MPC and ECB to follow through the summer • Be careful with…
Read MoreMar 19, 2024 9:22 am
• US bond market witnessed a sharp correction last week on unfavourable inflation data that unnerved investors • Inflation data has signalled a persistence that must worry the Fed • The FOMC is under pressure to reassess its guidance to the markets at this week’s meeting • Market prices just two or three rate cuts…
Read MoreMar 12, 2024 8:14 am
• US equities discount more of the same – growth and low interest rates • A more sobering view has less growth and higher interest rates and hence lower valuation • A serious correction in the near-term maybe headed off by the near term hope of robust growth, lower interest rates and a future corporate…
Read MoreMar 11, 2024 12:53 pm
• Market expectations of rate cuts by the Fed has moderated amid spike in January inflation numbers. • While headline numbers point to a resilient US economy, there are signs of stress under the surface. • We are close to neutral on Indian equity as valuations turn expensive even as macro and earnings are supportive….
Read MoreMar 5, 2024 7:19 am
• Inflation still a headache for global markets and central bankers • Last week’s US PCE data points to pockets of a re-acceleration of inflation in the service sector • Since Q4’23 the global trend has been of a stickiness to inflation • Recent research reports question whether long-term US bond yields are structurally headed…
Read MoreFeb 27, 2024 10:19 am
• The US tech sector shows powerful AI-driven growth • Fed minutes keep bonds on hold at higher yield levels • Global equities need better news from Europe and Asia to sustain the rally • China contributes a little more to positive equity trend • Asia ex-Japan will need the Chinese economy to show signs…
Read MoreFeb 20, 2024 6:06 am
• US inflation data worries increase • Economist sage Larry Summers urges us not to rule out a rate rise • US 10- year bond yield in value territory • UK equities get help from the better-than-expected retail sales, but only after a recession in Q4 • Nikkei within striking distance of its all-time 34-year…
Read More
