The Fed in a Hole

Aug 26, 2025

7:04 am

• Jerome Powell appears to concede defeat and opens the door to a rate cut • However another leg of inflation and employment data comes before the next Fed meeting • The Fed must still fear the impact of tariffs • However political pressure looms large • We fear US yield curve steepening • And…

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Pipeline Trouble

Aug 20, 2025

10:54 am

• PPI shock: US producer prices surged +0.9% MoM, reviving inflation risks. • US equity market stress rising: Leverage at record highs; valuations appear stretched. • US retail resilience may fade: Strong spending, but manufacturing falters. • Powell’s Jackson Hole pivot: We expect an adjustment to Fed communication • Global rotation: Europe, Japan, and China…

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Investment Strategy

Aug 12, 2025

10:54 am

• U.S. strikes trade deals with some partners but escalates tariff pressure on others. • Weak jobs data signals a slowdown in U.S. private-sector economic activity. • Recent escalation of tariffs tensions with US may keep Indian markets volatile, base case for a negotiation to be reached • India Inc. earnings broadly in line, but…

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Too Good to be True?

Aug 11, 2025

5:34 am

• Global growth data beating expectatations and inflation still to the low side has helped markets • US CPI due this week a test, but in reality too early to tell of likely inflation pass through from tariffs • The nomination of Stephen Mirran to the FOMC a sign of the times • Credit markets…

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