Jul 16, 2024 9:09 am
• Good US inflation report increases hopes for a rate cut no later than in September • US Core CPI has fallen to 2.1% in Q2 from 4.2% in Q1 • The prospect of a rate cut should help equities hold up despite weaker-than-expected growth data • Equity market rotation into interest rate-sensitives and small…
Read MoreJul 10, 2024 11:37 am
• Dichotomy of headline data persists in the US. • Global equity markets remain buoyant, led by the US technology sector. • We maintain a neutral stance on Indian equity due to elevated valuations. • We prefer duration in the Indian bond market, given favourable supply-demand dynamics. The McKelvey Rule For the past few months,…
Read MoreJul 9, 2024 9:43 am
• US economic data currently lends itself to earlier rate cuts • The ISM Service Sector index was sharply weaker • The Fed might consider a rate cut at its July meeting • We expect selective interest rate-sensitive sectors to perform • US 2-year government bond yield on track to decline to 4.2% Maybe, just…
Read MoreJul 8, 2024 9:15 am
• The UK electorate has dramatically ended 14 years of Conservative Party rule with a crushing victory for the Labour Party, winning a majority of 166 with 408 seats. • Conservative Party representation falls to 136, 208 seats lost and its worst defeat in modern times. • Voter turnout was depressed with the swing to…
Read MoreJul 4, 2024 9:27 am
The second quarter of 2024 was marked by a complex interplay of strong financial market performance, persistent inflation, and geopolitical risks. While consumer spending and labor markets remained robust in key economies like the U.S., inflation and geopolitical uncertainties posed ongoing challenges. The global economic outlook remained cautiously optimistic, with central banks’ monetary policies and…
Read MoreJul 2, 2024 6:11 am
• US politics in state of flux and still five months to go • US equity market doesn’t agree with the Fed’s view, but the bond market does agree • French politics in a state of flux • The ECB may be called to soothe the nerves of investors in the French bond market •…
Read MoreJun 25, 2024 5:36 am
• The Third Plenum of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee should deliver news of structural change. • After the recent pause in equity market performance, we see upside risk for the market. • A rally may depend on the engagement with a domestic investor who historically has not favoured equities. There is…
Read MoreJun 18, 2024 8:45 am
• The Fed downgrades its expectations for rate cuts, however the market disagrees • US interest rate sensitive stocks could rally after some painful underperformance • French politics is all at sea, but the French equity market has probably fallen too far The Fed doesn’t believe in significant early rate cuts – but the market…
Read MoreJun 12, 2024 9:53 am
• Global economy faces headwinds. • India’s growth remains resilient despite global challenges. • Indian bonds are likely to be range-bound as the RBI counterbalances bond inclusion cheer. • Better value in large-cap relative to mid and small-cap stocks in the medium term. Goldilocks to Stagflation Over the past several months, the U.S. economic commentary…
Read MoreJun 11, 2024 6:58 am
• Geopolitical challenges so far have not stirred exaggerated volatility in the equity markets • India’s election results, an initial shock, but likely still constructive for markets • The bitterness of US elections to increasingly worry markets as the months go by • The 80 year cycle of “The Fourth Turning” • Europe challenged by…
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