Sep 3, 2024 6:28 am
• This week’s US eployment report has the power to push the Fed to cut by 50bps • Income seeking strategies the lower risk way of enjoying a further run in US equities • Japan continues to shape its normalisation with good outcomes for the equity market A clearer picture on whether the U.S. Fed…
Read MoreAug 27, 2024 10:32 am
• Jerome Powell gives am emphatic message that the Fed will cut rates • The market expects measured rate Fed cuts, at 25bps per meeting, over the next six months • The pace of rate cuts will be data dependent and could be more aggressive if the labour market shows further weakness • The dollar’s…
Read MoreAug 19, 2024 10:06 am
• Equities have recovered their poise, helped by bond yield that have stayed low • US economic data may have surprised to the downside, but growth has momentum • We would ride the equity rally from here with tech, interest rate sensitives and Japanese equities • Gold’s all-time high is a good reminder of the…
Read MoreAug 16, 2024 8:16 am
• Global markets turn volatile amid concerns around Yen carry trade, earnings and Fed actions. • Indian macroeconomic strength also starting to moderate. • We turn underweight Indian equities amid elevated valuations, moderating macro strength, downward earnings revision and unfavourable technical momentum. • We add to gold as its fundamentals are intact. Exercicing Caution It…
Read MoreAug 13, 2024 9:31 am
• Markets recover 50% of their dips -equity indices, and bond yield lows. • Economists debate if weather-related issues distorted the labour market data. • A substantial part of the Yen carry trade is unwound • Japanese equities have still to recover as much as global equities and have a following wind of better economic…
Read MoreAug 7, 2024 6:24 am
• The US economy is currently experiencing a marked soft spot, with a notable deterioration in the labour market. • The Fed continues to make missteps, having missed an opportunity to cut interest rates this past week. The Fed is yet again being behind the curve with its monetary policy. • Circumstances may force the…
Read MoreAug 5, 2024 9:07 am
As we turned into the year’s second half, the markets finally saw more consistent news of better-behaved inflation. With inflation falling closer to central bank targets, some started to signal that they were at or much closer to the point of cutting interest rates. By the end of July and adding in the first day…
Read MoreJul 30, 2024 6:19 am
• Fed, BoJ and the UK MPC meet this week with all meetings having scope surprise • The Fed seems likely to leave rates unchanged but to give a clearer direction that the scope for rate cuts is opening up • The BoJ and UK MPC have an opportunity to change rates in keeping with…
Read MoreJul 23, 2024 6:52 am
• US Presidential election twists and turns are centre stage of a further rise in market geopolitical concerns • President Biden’s decision to stand down may help to dampen some of the more extreme alarm about a Trump Presidency • Rising/stubbornly high long term US interest rates indicate market concern about the long term US…
Read MoreJul 18, 2024 8:31 am
Quarterly Roundup • The markets kept crawling up during the quarter amid heightened volatility around the general elections. • If the earnings continue to grow, there shouldn’t be a significant threat to long-term equity returns. • The granular election results don’t look so favourable for the current dispensation, which went quite confidently into the elections…
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