Dec 3, 2024 9:11 am
With only weeks left before Donald Trump takes office, we thought it would be prudent to analyse the emerging investment themes globally and also see how the president-elect’s proposals of sweeping tariffs will shape the global economic order going forward. 1. Tariffs: A Risky Economic Gambit The president-elect’s initial policy musings on imposing substantial tariffs—25%…
Read MoreDec 2, 2024 1:14 pm
• US election uncertainty out of the way, focus back on policies • US Fed delivers another rate cut, pace of future rate cuts could be slower • Some recovery in the India output data after a weak Septembers • Weaker than expected corporate earnings, expected to stabilize in the next 2-3 quarters Global macro…
Read MoreNov 26, 2024 7:29 am
As we navigate the transition of power from the Biden administration to President-elect Donald Trump, it’s striking how analysts continue to argue that the US equity market can sustain further gains in the year ahead. Let’s be honest: few are willing to call a top in the US equity market, which has had a remarkable…
Read MoreNov 19, 2024 9:35 am
• After initial euphoria, markets react to the disruptive nature of the transition to a new presidency • Q4 US growth may gain momentum from animal spirits • Market can sense the Fed’s concern about sticky US inflation • Equities may be set for further gains after recent consolidation • European markets are at sea…
Read MoreNov 12, 2024 10:06 am
• President-elect Donald Trump has a strong mandate to push through • The market’s intial reactoin is fair with equity prices and bond yields higher • The pace of policy changes will depend on whether the Republicans win the House • The greater risk is to inflation – certainly if there is mass deportations, and…
Read MoreNov 7, 2024 7:13 am
From a macro perspective, the global economy was relatively stable in October, with few significant surprises. Inflation and growth data in developed economies largely aligned with expectations (see Chart 1). Central banks continued their easing trajectories: the ECB implemented its third rate cut of the year, bringing rates down to 3.25%, while the Bank of…
Read MoreNov 6, 2024 7:07 am
• November 5th Marks a Significant Date: Fireworks and a pivotal election could drive notable shifts in sentiment. • US Equities Facing Near-Term Volatility: Increased downside risk as U.S. government debt re-enters value territory. • China’s Economic Boost: Upcoming policy forum may introduce further support to stimulate growth. • UK Budget Insights: Highlights Europe’s ongoing…
Read MoreNov 5, 2024 5:50 am
“People usually expect the future to be like the past and underestimate the potential for change” – Howard Marks The Indian markets continued to touch new highs in the quarter with large caps leading the way. Markets continued to climb on the wall of worries. The Nifty and Sensex clocked 7.5% gains during the quarter while…
Read MoreOct 29, 2024 7:37 am
• Populism at the Forefront: Populism is clearly taking center stage in the US presidential election. • Debt & Deficit Concerns: The US deficit and debt levels will need addressing—if not now, then at a moment of the market’s choosing. • Volatility Alert: Equity market volatility remains a strong possibility. • US Tech Earnings Outlook:Tech…
Read MoreOct 21, 2024 10:35 am
• Economists upgrade their US and China GDP forecasts • The equity markets are enjoying the growth more than bonds which fear a slowdown in monetary easing • While equities have run strongly old economy stocks have still to see upgrades to profit forecasts • Gold and Silver have theri own strong dynamics – we…
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