Mar 11, 2025 9:29 am
• President Trump’s erratic policymaking is taking its toll on growth and markets • It is difficult to see logic in Trump’s tariff actions, which can only increase inflation • Therefore, there is logic in investors switching portfolio allocation to non-US markets • There is logic also in worrying about higher inflation and growth, which…
Read MoreMar 10, 2025 12:15 pm
• India’s macro and valuations are improving, but equities may remain under pressure in the absence of visibility of earnings recovery. • Large-cap valuations appear fair, while mid-and small-cap valuations remain above historical averages despite recent corrections. • Remain underweight on equities, with a preference for large caps. • Overweight gold amid strong central bank…
Read MoreFeb 24, 2025 10:09 am
President Trump’s unrelenting stance on tariffs, coupled with deeper cuts to government spending (chainsaw-inspired, as Elon Musk perhaps would prefer), is causing significant disruptions to the US economy. The resulting uncertainty has caused tremendous shock that is rippling through various sectors, leading to market volatility and growing investor unease. The euphoria that followed the election…
Read MoreFeb 17, 2025 8:59 am
• US retail investors are at their exuberant best • Last week’s US inflation data was concerning but markets shrugged off the bearish thoughts • Fed minutes due out this week key to near term sentiment • In Australia, RBA to cut rates for first time in four years • Japanese economic data for GDP…
Read MoreFeb 11, 2025 9:41 am
• Market Uncertainty Rises Amid US Policy Shifts – Disruptive policymaking in the US continues to keep investors on edge. • Consumer Confidence Wanes Amid Inflation Concerns – US consumers fret about near-term inflation worries persist. • Tech Stocks Face Pressure – High valuations and mixed quarterly earnings outlooks weigh on US technology stocks. •…
Read MoreFeb 6, 2025 9:38 am
• Trade war begins, likely leading to global market volatility. • India’s Union Budget shifts its focus to consumption, unlike previous budgets that emphasized capex. • Personal income tax cut will leave more disposable income in the hands of the middle class, likely supporting the recovery of urban demand. • The budget is neutral for…
Read MoreFeb 5, 2025 10:56 am
• Trump’s Tariff Strategy It was a foregone conclusion that President Trump would set off a tariff war to address drug and immigration challenges. • Economic Risks Growth faces downside risks, while inflation pressures continue to build. • Fed’s Stance on Rate Cuts: Market expectations for rate cuts are likely to moderate still further, especially…
Read MoreFeb 4, 2025 11:08 am
Global growth and inflation trends remain largely unchanged at an aggregate level. However, beneath the surface, growth leadership appears to be shifting from the U.S. to Japan and Europe. The early days of the Trump presidency have unsettled markets, with a flurry of executive orders that face potential legal challenges. Policies such as aggressive immigration…
Read MoreJan 30, 2025 7:31 am
Reality Check – Are Expectations Running High? The Indian markets saw some correction in the past quarter with mid-and-small caps outperforming the headline indices. The Nifty and Sensex declined by 7-8% in the quarter while the mid-caps declined around 5% and the small caps declined by a much lower 2%. The headline indices posted high…
Read MoreJan 28, 2025 9:55 am
• Trump’s policies show limited immediate market impact. • No major tariff updates yet, especially in China. • Consumers worry about tightening spending power. • The dollar reflects investor sentiment on policy change and government credibility. • Bank of Japan rate hike signals normalisation, boosting Japanese asset prices • DeepSeek is possibly deep trouble for…
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