Jun 13, 2025 12:27 pm
• U.S. trade policy has softened, but concrete deal progress is minimal. • Economic strength may weaken as front-loaded trade activity unwinds. • U.S. fiscal deficit concerns grow, intensified by the new tax bill. • Indian corporate earnings likely bottomed, poised for recovery with stronger economic activity. • Indian equities outlook cautiously optimistic, driven by…
Read MoreJun 9, 2025 6:01 am
• Tech dominated equity investing for much of the past decade, but its portfolio monopoly is fading. • A broader opportunity set is emerging, with strong interest in defence, financials, industrials, and parts of healthcare. • Defence spending is rising globally amid security concerns, while pharmaceuticals are rejoining the globalisation narrative. • May saw the…
Read MoreJun 4, 2025 11:02 am
Tariff Flip-Flopping: A Political Risk Repricing The month of May was dominated by trade policy volatility, as President Trump reignited tariff threats, particularly toward the European Union, before softening his stance by extending negotiation deadlines. The uncertainty surrounding tariff implementation created distortions in supply chains and added complexity to corporate planning. Many companies front-loaded exports—particularly…
Read MoreJun 3, 2025 6:40 am
• S&P500 has its best May in 35 years • But…. US assets still remain at risk from future high core inflation and a constrained central bank. • ECB and Asian central banks likely to cut rates to support their respective economies • We see further outperformance of ex US markets • AI – a…
Read MoreMay 28, 2025 8:03 am
• President Trump recharges the tariff challenge to the markets • US bond market fundamentals remain worrying to investors • Global growth has some positive drivers – policymakers helping in certain quarters • Smaller markets in Latin America and Europe have achieved good returns and still have some upside Trade Tensions Return President Trump’s proposed…
Read MoreMay 20, 2025 7:47 am
• The US and China agree to come back from the brink, but nothing is for certain • In some quarters the US 10 year is thought to offer tremendous value, but others like us would disagree • The dollar continues to struggle to rebound • US equities rally back to where they started the…
Read MoreMay 14, 2025 12:45 pm
• White smoke in Rome, but fog in the global economy • Macro data reinforces Fed hesitancy in cutting policy rates • Tariff news flow but still a lack of agreements • Japanese equities back on the front foot? • India-Pakistan tensions a reflection of the times? Last week was an eventful one for the…
Read MoreMay 13, 2025 11:14 am
• Recent data indicates that tariffs are beginning to weigh on U.S. economic activity. • Global equities rebounded in late April as the escalation of reciprocal tariffs took a temporary pause. • India’s economic indicators remain mixed, though early April data raises hope of improvement. • Corporate earnings in India in line with muted expectations,…
Read MoreMay 7, 2025 9:17 am
• COVID provides a good template for discerning market reaction to trouble on the horizon • A true market reaction will likely have to wait for hard economic data • The fall in oil prices provides some good news • Fed still some meetings from cutting rates • We retain our preference for ex-US equity…
Read MoreMay 2, 2025 10:01 am
The world may have fundamentally shifted following President Trump’s declaration on Freedom Day in early April, marking a pivotal moment in the global economic landscape. With the U.S. taking a more insular approach, globalization appears to be heading into reverse. The reverberations of this policy shift are already being felt across international trade, investment flows, and…
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