Apr 28, 2025 8:40 am
• Still a paucity of economic data to define the impact of tariffs • Q1 data has tuned out to be stronger than expected in some quarters- something that could have been built on • Survey data shows a decline in confidence that appears to growing • Relatively we prefer european assets over the US…
Read MoreApr 23, 2025 6:02 am
• Economic surveys and data points will provide greater clarity to the state of the global economy • A new set of IMF forecasts will provide some guidance to the downside to growth and upside to inflation • Trump’s attack on Fed chair Powell does not bode well for long-term bond yields – real yields…
Read MoreApr 17, 2025 6:39 am
• US announces reciprocal tariffs, higher than expected. • These tariffs may slow growth, raise near-term inflation, and risk tipping the US into a recession. • India remains relatively insulated but could be impacted by a US slowdown and any second order impact. • With the tariff event behind us, we plan to reduce our…
Read MoreApr 16, 2025 7:41 am
A Silver Lining in the Storm: How Trump’s Trade Disruption Is Forcing a Global Economic Reset President Trump’s recent policy onslaught—particularly the flipflops on tariffs—has drawn sharp criticism from economists and market participants alike. The chaos inflicted on global supply chains, trade flows, and investor sentiment has been profound. Yet amidst the short-term volatility, there…
Read MoreApr 15, 2025 9:07 am
Due to the breadth of issues in the markets at present we are sending out two weeklies this week, the first on the immediate challenges and the second on the potential silver lining for the markets. The past week has seen President Trump’s tariff regime undergo significant shifts, leaving the markets to digest the implications…
Read MoreApr 7, 2025 11:38 am
• There was no discernible crisis so why the emergency tariffs? • A recession and a spike in US inflation to 5% appear quite possible • The Fed may cut rates, but it might be reluctant at this stage • The end of US exceptionalism risks further relative underperformance of US equities • Central bankers…
Read MoreApr 3, 2025 1:34 pm
As President Trump began issuing a wave of executive orders, the global economic outlook quickly became more complex. Governments around the world were compelled to respond to a series of challenges sparked by what is shaping up to be a transformational set of policies—policies that may well herald a new world order. To be fair,…
Read MoreApr 1, 2025 12:32 pm
This week, I was reminded by my former JPMorgan colleague, Tim Harris, that it’s now the 25th anniversary of the tech wreck of 2000. That anniversary stirred memories of a pivotal moment in my career—just over 25 years ago, in February 2000, I stood on Wall Street addressing the International Advisory Board of JPMorgan. In…
Read MoreMar 25, 2025 9:40 am
• Buy-the-dip helps US equities to edge higher, as other markets are quiet • US equities though, are hampered by challenging technicals and weak earnings revisions • Chinese equities slide as India improves • The Fed is on hold, maybe until the end of the year We observed a subtle shift in market dynamics last…
Read MoreMar 18, 2025 8:06 am
• The dip in equity volatility likely suggests investors are getting used to the unpredictability of US government policy making • Through the noise of US policymaking, it’s important to focus on key macro aspects of growth, inflation, and the dollar • US growth is under some pressure, consensus GDP forecasts are on the slide…
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