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Pipeline Trouble

Aug 20, 2025

10:54 am

• PPI shock: US producer prices surged +0.9% MoM, reviving inflation risks. • US equity market stress rising: Leverage at record highs; valuations appear stretched. • US retail resilience may fade: Strong spending, but manufacturing falters. • Powell’s Jackson Hole pivot: We expect an adjustment to Fed communication • Global rotation: Europe, Japan, and China…

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Investment Strategy

Aug 12, 2025

10:54 am

• U.S. strikes trade deals with some partners but escalates tariff pressure on others. • Weak jobs data signals a slowdown in U.S. private-sector economic activity. • Recent escalation of tariffs tensions with US may keep Indian markets volatile, base case for a negotiation to be reached • India Inc. earnings broadly in line, but…

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Too Good to be True?

Aug 11, 2025

5:34 am

• Global growth data beating expectatations and inflation still to the low side has helped markets • US CPI due this week a test, but in reality too early to tell of likely inflation pass through from tariffs • The nomination of Stephen Mirran to the FOMC a sign of the times • Credit markets…

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Trust Broken

Aug 6, 2025

7:06 am

• President Trump springs bad surprises on tariffs and integrity of US economic data • Effective tariff levels are heading towards the levels announced in April • Global growth is slipping, and central bankers may move cautiously going forward • The US will likely pay for undermining the integrity of its economic data in higher…

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