Oct 18, 2024 7:16 am
• Much-anticipated Fed cut of 50 bps delivered. • Indian markets demonstrate resilience even as economic growth cools a bit. • Result season to increase volatility in stocks. • Portfolio management services continue to be relevant to investors, despite recent underperformance. The Fed Delivers The much-anticipated rate cut by the Fed came through in September…
Read MoreOct 15, 2024 9:40 am
• The urgency for US Fed fund rate cuts dissipates. • US growth and inflation data continue to surprise to the upside modestly. • The Chinese authorities tell a good story about providing support for their economy. • Should China follow through on its reflation initiatives, we expect global stock market leadership to shift to…
Read MoreOct 8, 2024 10:51 am
It all looked too easy: a US soft landing, lower inflation, and a compliant-with-market-wishes Fed that was seemingly prepared to deliver to the market further 50bps rate cuts. It was easy money for investors, and bonds and equities rallied. A couple of US data points later, we still have good growth, but nascent inflation worries,…
Read MoreOct 5, 2024 6:51 am
It happened – US fed funds rates finally peaked. The Fed’s sprung a small surprise and cut interest rates by 50bps against a marginal majority view that the fed would only cut rates by 25bps. The accompanying statement and dot plot showed that the market was right to anticipate further consistent cuts from future Fed…
Read MoreOct 1, 2024 3:00 pm
• Weak US consumer confidence data brings calls for a further 50bps Fed rate cut • China reverses prudent policies and unleashes huge stimulus – equites may have further to rally • European equities struggle with policy paralysis, but are cheap • Indian equities are expensive by historical standards, but the country continues to innovate…
Read MoreSep 24, 2024 6:40 am
• The Fed makes a good start to the rate cutting cycle, trimming rates by 50bps • The peaking of US policy rates often means trouble ahead; we hope this time is different • US inflation is certainly in abeyance but not totally beaten • Asian and emerging equity markets offer good upside as they…
Read MoreSep 17, 2024 7:44 am
• We are hopeful that the Fed will deliver a 50bps rate cut, if not the market will likely be disappointed • A new Fed ‘dot plot’ should forecast a steady drop in policy rates over the coming 15 months • The Bank of Japan to signal further rate rises, but no move likely at…
Read MoreSep 19, 2024 8:53 am
• US Fed actions continue to be in focus for global markets. • US Jobs data is being revised downwards, and US bankruptcy filings have increased. • India’s economic growth remains resilient and increase in capacity utilisation suggests that private capex should also pick up soon. • We are gradually underweighting equities and prefer large…
Read MoreSep 10, 2024 1:02 pm
• Investors fret that US economic data does not emphatically push the Fed to provide a 50bps rate cut this month • Marked profit-taking in the equity markets suggests that investors want to see an acceleration of monetary easing • A slow pace of monetary easing is a concern for many who worry about the…
Read MoreSep 5, 2024 6:07 am
The month’s feature was the massive spike in market volatility after the Bank of Japan surprised the market by increasing interest rates, and worse than expected US employment data led to fears of a US recession. The rise in BoJ rates led to a significant closing off of the so-called Yen carry trade, where investors…
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