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GCIO Quarterly – Q1 2026 – Geopolitics Repriced

Apr 6, 2026

12:47 pm

GCIO Quarterly – Q1 2026 – Geopolitics Repriced The first quarter of 2026 will be remembered for the return of geopolitical shock as the dominant market driver. The global economy entered the year on reasonably firm footing, but not on especially sturdy foundations. Inflation had been easing only slowly in several major economies, central banks…

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Reality Starts to Dawn

Mar 30, 2026

10:16 am

Markets still looked too relaxed….. at least until this morning Friday’s sell-off in US equities may prove to be the first small crack in what has otherwise been a remarkably composed response to a deteriorating global backdrop. Riding on last year’s strong rally, equities remain close to highs. Bond yields have advanced, but not yet…

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Energy Shock, Policy Constraint, and Portfolio Discipline

Mar 24, 2026

9:07 am

The Middle East crisis presents an opportunity to stress-test portfolios, not to redesign them. Markets have already priced in the first phase of the shock, but there is still insufficient clarity on duration and escalation to support large shifts in asset allocation. The market reaction to the current crisis remains consistent with an energy shock…

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Troubled Waters

Mar 17, 2026

12:00 am

• An increasing recognition that there is duration to this crisis • Spike in inflation limits materially changes the scope for easier monetary policy • Think rate increases • Stagflation risks • Markets may tread water waiting for developments Markets changed their mind last week and the change of mind was not about war risk,…

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