Apr 27, 2026 6:31 am
Indian Equities: A pause in Leadership, not the end of it • India remains a structural outperformer vs broader EM despite near-term divergence • Corrections of 10–15% in a year have historically led to strong forward returns • Current phase is a reset in valuations and time, not a break in the cycle Indian equities…
Read MoreApr 21, 2026 7:32 am
I. THE SCALE OF THE DISRUPTION: GETTING THE NUMBERS RIGHT Before anything else about market psychology or diplomatic signalling warrants attention, the physical facts of the ongoing disruption deserve to stand on their own. They are extraordinary, and any analysis that blurs or minimises them is starting from a false position. Tanker transits through the…
Read MoreApr 15, 2026 10:18 am
• The Middle East conflict remains a near-term market trigger. • Higher oil prices may weigh on Indian corporate earnings in the coming quarters if geopolitical tensions re-escalate. • Equity valuations have moderated, time to reduce underweight. • Bond yields could remain volatile; shorter-duration instruments are preferred. The Epic Flip Flop Talks over the weekend…
Read MoreApr 13, 2026 9:45 am
Summary The March 2026 US CPI confirmed what we have been anticipating: the inflation shock is real, it is supply-driven, and it has barely started. At 3.3% year-on-year, the March print represents the visible first layer of a multi-round repricing that will move through freight, food, and services over the coming quarters. Unlike demand-driven inflation,…
Read MoreApr 7, 2026 11:23 am
Longer Crisis, Larger Inflation Pulse The market still seems to think this is an oil spike with an exit ramp. We take a different view. We believe investors are underestimating the duration of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and, therefore, its long-term inflationary impact. The initial signs of the conflict are already visible…
Read MoreApr 6, 2026 12:47 pm
GCIO Quarterly – Q1 2026 – Geopolitics Repriced The first quarter of 2026 will be remembered for the return of geopolitical shock as the dominant market driver. The global economy entered the year on reasonably firm footing, but not on especially sturdy foundations. Inflation had been easing only slowly in several major economies, central banks…
Read MoreMar 30, 2026 10:16 am
Markets still looked too relaxed….. at least until this morning Friday’s sell-off in US equities may prove to be the first small crack in what has otherwise been a remarkably composed response to a deteriorating global backdrop. Riding on last year’s strong rally, equities remain close to highs. Bond yields have advanced, but not yet…
Read MoreMar 24, 2026 9:07 am
The Middle East crisis presents an opportunity to stress-test portfolios, not to redesign them. Markets have already priced in the first phase of the shock, but there is still insufficient clarity on duration and escalation to support large shifts in asset allocation. The market reaction to the current crisis remains consistent with an energy shock…
Read MoreMar 17, 2026 12:00 am
• An increasing recognition that there is duration to this crisis • Spike in inflation limits materially changes the scope for easier monetary policy • Think rate increases • Stagflation risks • Markets may tread water waiting for developments Markets changed their mind last week and the change of mind was not about war risk,…
Read MoreMar 13, 2026 12:14 pm
• The Middle East conflict is a key near-term driver for the markets, particularly oil prices and global inflation expectations. • Indian economy is better placed than past oil shocks, but prolonged higher oil prices would hurt the economy and corporate earnings. • With improving earnings and resilient domestic flows, our longer-term view on Indian…
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