Jan 27, 2026 7:12 am
Debate around artificial intelligence has become overly focused on existential or ethical risk, while a more immediate and historically familiar danger receives less attention: financial fragility created by private-market excess. The current capital-raising efforts of OpenAI, including a high-profile funding tour through the Middle East, provide a timely real-world context in which to examine this…
Read MoreJan 23, 2026 10:06 am
Markets, policymakers, and commentators are understandably absorbed by the immediacy of events. President Trump’s unorthodox policymaking, the visible erosion of trust in Western governments, the rise of political “hard men”, popular unrest in Iran, and the weakening of institutions forged after the Second World War dominate daily analysis. Each development is debated intensely, often framed…
Read MoreJan 20, 2026 7:37 am
• US growth has been firmer than many feared • As geopolitics remains hot, tariffs are back on the agenda • We see risks of Europe experiencing faltering growth, and higher US inflation • To us, Japan is still a clean story For a brief moment late last week, it felt as though the global…
Read MoreJan 19, 2026 11:22 am
• Global growth is expected to slow further in 2026, led by a deceleration in the U.S. economy. • Economic activity in India should improve driving earnings towards double digits in FY27. • Valuations have eased across most segments, though pockets of overvaluation persist • Indian equity returns may remain muted but more broad-based in…
Read MoreJan 13, 2026 7:16 am
• Markets stay firm despite political volatility and mixed macro signals • Supreme Court likely to curb Trump’s tariff powers, easing trade tail risks • Jerome Powell pushes back • US tax cuts and earnings season offer near-term support, led by tech • Inflation data next week may challenge the disinflation narrative • East outperforms:…
Read MoreJan 7, 2026 9:59 am
The Best May Be Behind Us • 2026 begins with momentum, not new policy support. Early gains are possible, but returns must be earned through growth and earnings. • The easy part of the cycle is over. Markets will prioritise growth first, inflation discipline second, and rate cuts only at the margin. • Capital is…
Read MoreJan 5, 2026 2:18 pm
Venezuelan Oil: Immense Geology, Heavy Reality Executive summary Events over the past few days have materially altered how Venezuela’s oil endowment is being discussed in the context of future global supply. From a pariah state long constrained by sanctions and naval pressure, the apparent US control of key security and energy decisions has brought…
Read MoreJan 5, 2026 12:32 pm
A very happpy New Year to all our clients and frirnds of The Global CIO Office. Whishing you all a prosperous New Year Ahead Table 1: Assset Class returns to end Deceber 2025 (USD) Source: Bloomberg Executive Summary 2025 will be remembered as the year in which global markets stopped taking US policy announcements at…
Read MoreDec 22, 2025 10:25 am
Markets will close the year having delivered respectable returns. That matters. Financial growth supports savings, and investment, and it provides a degree of stability. But growth is broader than a GDP definition or asset market performance alone. We live in a world of human beings, not just monetary wealth, and progress must also be judged…
Read MoreDec 16, 2025 1:44 pm
• A three way split at the Fed does not bode well for next year • Dot plot looks like a Christmas tree • Lack of building consensus and politicisation does not help • The middle path suggest more rate cuts next year – for political reason that may be right…. but it doesnt mean…
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