Oct 31, 2025 12:00 am
Macro resilience | Early earnings pickup visible So far in 2025, markets have been shaped by an earnings slowdown, heightened geopolitical tensions, and rising global economic frictions, including India’s own border challenges. Yet amid these headwinds, the country has displayed notable resilience across key macroeconomic indicators. The September quarter reinforced India’s macro resilience despite global…
Read MoreOct 28, 2025 12:00 am
• US CPI marginally better than expected but still going higher • Threat of further US tariffs on Canada don’t help US CPI • Fed still motivated to cutting rates by 25bps this week • Japan politics positive for the markets • China delivers a plan for the future While US headline inflation came in…
Read MoreOct 22, 2025 8:22 am
• Gold – How about $11,000? • Gold price to M2 money supply ratio shows still more upside • The yellow metal’s outperformance versus equities is unprecedented, given equities haven’t fallen • Private Credit has its wake-up call – high-yield spreads widen • China’s Plenum set to spell out the long-term vision • France and…
Read MoreOct 16, 2025 6:00 am
• Markets were vulnerable given recent low voaltility • US’s threatened 100% tariffs on China would be playing with fire – there are early signs of a backdown • The world will remain vulnerable to China’s virtual monopoly on rare earth production • Global growth looks to be waning as capital investment growth starts to…
Read MoreOct 15, 2025 11:10 am
• H-1B visa fee hike and 100% tariffs on branded/patented drugs have limited impact on Indian cos. • Maintain neutral equities as most parameters are balanced; earnings recovery needed for momentum. • Upgrade mid-caps to neutral from underweight due to improved valuations and relatively stronger earnings. • Maintain overweight in gold despite partial profit-taking; also…
Read MoreOct 7, 2025 6:43 am
• As we enter a new quarter we see little reason to deviate form our core portfolio advice. • We expect China’s upcoming fourth plenum to deliver further structral reasons for optimism on Chinese equity market. • A female Prime Minister in Japan provides further evidence of Japan’s transformation. • As long as fiscal and…
Read MoreOct 6, 2025 9:21 am
August Tariffs – Another Brick in the Wall The defining feature of the quarter was the 1 August tariff reset. A 10% universal baseline tariff was imposed on most imports, with higher rates for Japan, Korea, Canada, Mexico, and the EU. China was granted a temporary truce at 10% until November while longer-term terms are…
Read MoreSep 30, 2025 12:19 am
• Corporate CAPEX growth of 11% this year as spurred global growth to surprising heights • Q2 US GDP surprises to the upside (3.8%) and 3% likely in Q3 • Tech spending a major driver; the sector should still perform well • High Grade bond spreads narrow still further – could they stray to negative?…
Read MoreSep 23, 2025 7:34 am
• Further Fed cuts rates as expected, but the backdrop remains mired in politics and evolving economic landscape • The US economic data is particularly difficult to interpret, and patience is needed – but try telling the President • Risk of Fed policy error is high • Bank of England appears in no rush to…
Read MoreSep 16, 2025 11:21 am
Markets may still be performing well, but the narrow concentration in technology stocks reveals a soft underbelly to the current bull run. For the rally to sustain, rate cuts will need to encourage broader participation across sectors. The continued strength in gold, even as equities hit new highs and bond yields remain subdued, signals caution…
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