Jun 2, 2026 9:18 am
The main worry in markets today is not the direction of travel but the level of conviction. Investors are not wrong to lean towards the optimistic case – the de-escalation in the Gulf, a US economy that keeps growing, and an AI cycle that could eventually lift productivity more broadly. Our concern is more precise,…
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May 25, 2026 10:31 am
• Hopes build for an interim agreement in the between the US and Iran • Inflation is more visible now • New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforces a more hawkish Fed • Equities marched higher, but fund outflows accelerated • A new global logistics map is emerging Executive Summary The global economy appears increasingly uncertain…
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May 19, 2026 7:26 am
The stabilisation we currently see in the market is built on the belief that sense will prevail in the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, a Brent oil price near $110 is consistent with managed stress and has kept us away from expecting the worst. It is, however, not consistent with a standoff where both sides…
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May 12, 2026 11:38 am
Oil, AI, and the inflation regime equities have not yet discounted It is not too difficult to conclude what is driving market performance even as conditions remain unfavourable. A 60% surge in technology earnings in Q1 2026 – the rest of the S&P 500 grew at 17% – has helped the market hold its nerve….
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