Dec 12, 2025 9:51 am
• A benign inflation environment provided the RBI room to cut rates in the December policy meeting. • With supportive policy, India’s economic activity and corporate earnings should improve in the coming quarters. • We remain neutral on Indian equities as earnings have stabilised and valuations have partly moderated. • The U.S. job market is…
Read MoreDec 9, 2025 12:00 am
The sharp rise in US and Japanese bond yields last week is another sign of tougher times ahead for bond markets. The week saw US 10-year treasury yields surge 12 basis points (bps) to 4.14%, the highest since April. In Japan, the two-year yields rose above 1.0%, a level not seen since 2008. Our short…
Read MoreDec 3, 2025 9:37 am
November felt like a pause for breath rather than a turning point. Global equities eked out a 0.3% gain, leaving year-to-date returns at a robust 20.1%, but the intra-month story was a nervous drawdown as investors flirted with the idea that the Fed might skip a December cut before swinging back to pricing one move….
Read MoreDec 2, 2025 5:21 am
When discussing US GDP growth, recent commentary has focused heavily on capital investment. The AI boom has driven a sharp rise in corporate capex, with firms racing to upgrade infrastructure and scale new applications. The consumer side of the economy, however, has been more mixed. In fact, consumer confidence has weakened throughout much of the…
Read MoreNov 25, 2025 12:00 am
• Consolidation not collapse • US Labour market stronger than expected but the Fed may still cut • Russia/Ukraine talks push weakness into the oil market • French and UK budget challanges • Japan keeps pushing with growth • Rupee weakness has policymakers on the back foot Equity markets plunged 2-3% last week as investors…
Read MoreNov 19, 2025 11:23 am
• UK fiscal inconsistency pushes gilt yields higher and sterling lower • Elements of the US president’s popularity base begin to peel away • Protest participation is approaching levels where institutional actors start exhibiting a shift in behaviour • US data blackout impairs monetary policy visibility and raises policy error risk • Nvidia, major retailers,…
Read MoreNov 18, 2025 6:33 am
• Indian Inc.’s Q2FY26 earnings better than expected so far; Earnings growth likely to pick up in H2FY26. • Midcap valuations have eased from September 2024 peak; their earnings growth relatively strong. • Protest participation is approaching levels where institutional actors start exhibiting a shift in behaviour • Long-term fundamentals for Gold and Silver remain…
Read MoreNov 11, 2025 12:00 am
Global Growth on Track… In the absence of hard US economic data, conviction about global economic growth remains elusive. Yet, as we noted last week, there are signs that global growth is trending in a positive direction. The latest US ISM Services survey came in marginally stronger than expected, providing a sharp contrast to the…
Read MoreNov 6, 2025 12:00 am
Markets ended October in buoyant form, supported by improving growth data and a subtle but discernible easing in global monetary conditions. With inflation broadly contained and policy rhetoric turning less hawkish, investors regained confidence that central banks can now balance growth and price stability. Corporate earnings surprised to the upside in several regions, while liquidity…
Read MoreNov 4, 2025 5:47 am
• Global growth appears to be accelerating (absent US government data) • Inflation risk will likely keep the Fed on its toes • Asia’s equity markets are no longer the satellites — they are the new poles of confidence • China now stands toe-to-toe with the United States in economic and strategic heft • Japan’s…
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