Mar 10, 2026 7:28 am
For some time now, we have argued that the world is approaching the end of a long geopolitical cycle. History rarely moves in a linear fashion. Periods of relative stability are often followed roughly every eighty to ninety years by crisis phases in which institutions built by one generation are tested and rebuilt by the…
Read MoreMar 6, 2026 5:43 am
Global Economy Economic data released during February suggested that the global economy continues to expand, though the momentum remains uneven across major regions. Activity indicators show a world that is neither accelerating strongly nor slipping into recession, but rather moving through a phase of modest and differentiated growth. In the United States, economic signals remain…
Read MoreMar 2, 2026 9:30 am
After Events of the weekend are forcing a major resetting of the investment outlook and have caused major disruption to the Middle East. This correspondent is currently based in Mumbai after the closure of Dubai airspace. Below we look at the consequences of the Iranian crisis and reflect on how the year started. Over the…
Read MoreFeb 24, 2026 12:00 am
• Supreme Court ruling caps tariff overreach, but opens a fiscal tail (repayments) and a credibility question • “Knee-jerk” policy escalation with 10/15% tariffs adds to the volatility • US Bond duration looks under-priced amid supply and confidence concerns • Blue Owl wakes the market up to the power of retail investors – Treasury market…
Read MoreFeb 16, 2026 11:34 am
• US data looks solid, but credibility is deteriorating beneath the surface • Inflation is cooling, though core pressures and tariff passthrough risks remain • Equity leadership is rotating firmly away from mega-cap concentration • Asia is executing decisive policy while Western markets drift US economic data continues to look solid on the surface, yet…
Read MoreFeb 10, 2026 6:23 am
• Leadership is broadening as investors rotate away from US mega-cap concentration. • Technology is becoming more selective, with dispersion replacing blanket AI trades. • Ex-US markets, led by Japan, are attracting incremental capital flows. • Gold remains portfolio insurance despite near-term profit-taking. Markets are no longer driven solely by size, but by how swiftly…
Read MoreFeb 6, 2026 11:09 am
• India’s 2026 budget met muted expectations and was broadly market neutral. • The subsequent U.S.–India trade deal announcement could be a key near-term catalyst for markets. • While details are scarce, the deal may help stabilise the rupee and revive FII inflows. • Improving fundamentals, now reinforced by better sentiment post the deal, are…
Read MoreFeb 4, 2026 6:35 am
FOMC Meeting and Broader Central Bank Context After last year’s frenzy of rate cuts, 2026 has started in a more nuanced way. Last week’s FOMC meeting confirmed that the Federal Reserve has transitioned beyond the cycle of consecutive rate cuts to a “show us why we should cut” phase, where its decisions will be guided…
Read MoreFeb 3, 2026 4:55 am
After the strong gains in markets in 2025, it was almost wishful thinking to believe that markets could replicate such returns in 2026. However it is worth observing that from a macroeconomic perspective 2026 has stated well. As chart 1 shows the economic growth data has largely beaten expectations leading to upgrades to forecasts. Global…
Read MoreJan 28, 2026 12:00 am
• Beyond the Davos rhetoric, markets are moving towards Canada PM Carney’s vision of a polycentric world shaped by changed capital flows and state balance-sheet credibility. • Precious metals (Gold +9%) , LatAm equities (+5%), and non-USD currencies are signalling regime change, not cyclical noise. • Portfolios should reduce US concentration and increase exposure to…
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