Jun 8, 2026 10:11 am
Markets spent most of the last week patting themselves on the back. Then, on Friday, US chipmaker and infrastructure software group Broadcom Inc reported earnings, and the mood shifted rather abruptly. What followed was less a market correction and more a reminder that when valuations are priced for perfection, you do not need bad news…
Read MoreJun 3, 2026 9:55 am
Global markets entered May still balancing two powerful forces: resilient equity earnings and a deteriorating macro backdrop. Growth data have become more uneven. The economic surprise data show a striking divergence: the United States and Japan have recovered sharply, while Europe has fallen deeply into negative territory. That matters because markets are no longer dealing…
Read MoreJun 2, 2026 9:18 am
The main worry in markets today is not the direction of travel but the level of conviction. Investors are not wrong to lean towards the optimistic case – the de-escalation in the Gulf, a US economy that keeps growing, and an AI cycle that could eventually lift productivity more broadly. Our concern is more precise,…
Read MoreMay 25, 2026 10:31 am
• Hopes build for an interim agreement in the between the US and Iran • Inflation is more visible now • New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforces a more hawkish Fed • Equities marched higher, but fund outflows accelerated • A new global logistics map is emerging Executive Summary The global economy appears increasingly uncertain…
Read MoreMay 19, 2026 7:26 am
The stabilisation we currently see in the market is built on the belief that sense will prevail in the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, a Brent oil price near $110 is consistent with managed stress and has kept us away from expecting the worst. It is, however, not consistent with a standoff where both sides…
Read MoreMay 12, 2026 11:38 am
Oil, AI, and the inflation regime equities have not yet discounted It is not too difficult to conclude what is driving market performance even as conditions remain unfavourable. A 60% surge in technology earnings in Q1 2026 – the rest of the S&P 500 grew at 17% – has helped the market hold its nerve….
Read MoreMay 11, 2026 12:51 pm
• Global markets have rebounded sharply on hopes of easing Middle East tensions. • AI-led capex continues to support global growth even as inflation pressures re-emerge. • India’s economic activity remains resilient despite higher energy prices. • Q4FY26 earnings have broadly met expectations, with estimates remaining stable. • We remain constructive on equities and are…
Read MoreMay 6, 2026 12:56 pm
Summary in plain terms: Stock markets are near all-time highs, but the economic backdrop is quietly getting worse — growth is slowing while inflation is about to become significantly more persistent. We think investors should tactically own technology and energy stocks, avoid longer dated government bonds, and prepare for a world where inflation will prove…
Read MoreMay 5, 2026 9:21 am
April was a month in which markets moved from hoping that the inflation shock would be temporary to accepting that policy may need to stay tighter for longer. Global growth momentum has been lost. Growth surprises have turned decisively weaker. Europe led the deterioration, and the aggregate G10 growth surprise index has now moved firmly…
Read MoreApr 29, 2026 12:00 am
Markets enter the week facing the same unresolved equation that has characterised the past two months: a Gulf conflict barely eight weeks old, a Federal Reserve in leadership transition, and an equity market eyeing the certainty that the macro backdrop does not yet support. The temptation to discount the problems — to assume the ceasefire…
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