Apr 21, 2026 7:32 am
I. THE SCALE OF THE DISRUPTION: GETTING THE NUMBERS RIGHT Before anything else about market psychology or diplomatic signalling warrants attention, the physical facts of the ongoing disruption deserve to stand on their own. They are extraordinary, and any analysis that blurs or minimises them is starting from a false position. Tanker transits through the…
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Apr 15, 2026 10:18 am
• The Middle East conflict remains a near-term market trigger. • Higher oil prices may weigh on Indian corporate earnings in the coming quarters if geopolitical tensions re-escalate. • Equity valuations have moderated, time to reduce underweight. • Bond yields could remain volatile; shorter-duration instruments are preferred. The Epic Flip Flop Talks over the weekend…
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Apr 13, 2026 9:45 am
Summary The March 2026 US CPI confirmed what we have been anticipating: the inflation shock is real, it is supply-driven, and it has barely started. At 3.3% year-on-year, the March print represents the visible first layer of a multi-round repricing that will move through freight, food, and services over the coming quarters. Unlike demand-driven inflation,…
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Apr 7, 2026 11:23 am
Longer Crisis, Larger Inflation Pulse The market still seems to think this is an oil spike with an exit ramp. We take a different view. We believe investors are underestimating the duration of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and, therefore, its long-term inflationary impact. The initial signs of the conflict are already visible…
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