Aug 3, 2026 10:51 am
July was the month the Gulf crisis stopped being a fading story. The pause between Washington and Tehran collapsed, the Houthis opened a second front in the Red Sea and declared a blockade of Saudi shipping, Saudi forces joined US operations against Iran-backed groups in Iraq, and tanker loadings serving Kazakh crude in the…
Read MoreJul 31, 2026 11:19 am
Indian Equities: Tide is turning | Relative performance improving • AI Infrastructure euphoria sees profit booking | MSCI Korea declines ~30% from June ‘26 high • Domestic macro steady amid global volatility | credit growth, GST collections near highs • Even after rebound, Nifty remains below Jan 26 peak, but valuations have reset closer to…
Read MoreJul 14, 2026 10:52 am
• The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased a key geopolitical overhang. • India’s macro outlook is improving, supported by lower energy prices, a stable rupee, and progress on US–India trade talks. • Earnings growth will be the key market driver, with Q1 weakness likely to be temporary. • We remain overweight Indian…
Read MoreJul 13, 2026 9:04 am
The Gulf conflict is neither over nor escalating in a straight line. Ceasefires have become pauses. Military actions keep happening without triggering the economic collapse many feared. The better guide to how to react isn’t the political noise, it’s how the conflict transmits through energy prices, trade, inflation and corporate earnings. Over the weekend, the…
Read MoreJul 6, 2026 9:10 am
• A revival of the global industrial sector challenges the tech sector for market leadership. • A broadening of sector performance potentially bodes well for market performance through the Q2 results season. • Fed Chair Warsh reiterates commitment to inflation targeting. • Investors should broaden their investments by region and sector. • US internal geopolitics…
Read MoreJul 2, 2026 9:19 am
Q2 was neither recession nor recovery in the textbook sense. The global economy absorbed a genuine shock — the Gulf disruption, higher energy costs, tighter financial conditions — without buckling, then surprised positively into quarter-end. The global economic surprise index fell sharply through April before recovering sharply through June, comfortably above trend. But the composition…
Read MoreJun 29, 2026 11:56 am
• An unconventional US economy revival led by CAPEX • Stronger consumer spending led by higher wage growth is needed, but it may worry the Fed • Market rally broadens – the old economy stirs • :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0} sees pushback from the bond market US economic data has staged a striking recovery, signalling the economy continues…
Read MoreJun 22, 2026 10:22 am
• The Great Equity Reversal – Equity comes out of Retirment • The Warsh Fed – Short and sweet • The Musk Premium – SpaceX outpaces Tesla • The Dysfunctional America Risk – Where will we be by December? There are weeks when the responsible thing to do is to sit down quietly, pour a…
Read MoreJun 15, 2026 12:03 pm
Investment conclusion: At the time of writing, our central assumption is that a US-Iran peace deal is more likely than not. Markets’ first reaction to the development should be a reversal of the crisis trade: some profit-taking in energy, materials, and technology, accompanied by renewed interest in consumer discretionary, real estate, Europe, India, and selected…
Read MoreJun 10, 2026 8:54 am
• A Middle East deal appears within reach but remains uncertain. • Global equity momentum increasingly depends on earnings growth, led by AI infrastructure spending. • India’s macroeconomic resilience continues, though higher energy costs have yet to be fully passed through to consumer prices. • Q4FY26 earnings were broadly strong, with mid- and small-caps outperforming…
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