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Never Mind the Wedding

May 25, 2026

10:31 am

• Hopes build for an interim agreement in the between the US and Iran • Inflation is more visible now • New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforces a more hawkish Fed • Equities marched higher, but fund outflows accelerated • A new global logistics map is emerging Executive Summary The global economy appears increasingly uncertain…

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Priced for Sense. Not a Standoff

May 19, 2026

7:26 am

The stabilisation we currently see in the market is built on the belief that sense will prevail in the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, a Brent oil price near $110 is consistent with managed stress and has kept us away from expecting the worst. It is, however, not consistent with a standoff where both sides…

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AI Excitement Overwhelms Oil Shortages

May 12, 2026

11:38 am

Oil, AI, and the inflation regime equities have not yet discounted It is not too difficult to conclude what is driving market performance even as conditions remain unfavourable. A 60% surge in technology earnings in Q1 2026 – the rest of the S&P 500 grew at 17% – has helped the market hold its nerve….

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Investment Strategy

May 11, 2026

12:51 pm

• Global markets have rebounded sharply on hopes of easing Middle East tensions. • AI-led capex continues to support global growth even as inflation pressures re-emerge. • India’s economic activity remains resilient despite higher energy prices. • Q4FY26 earnings have broadly met expectations, with estimates remaining stable. • We remain constructive on equities and are…

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