Sep 28, 2026 9:22 am
• Clear evidence of a possible/probable new regime in the US bond market • Equities can ignore only as long as earnings forecasts continue to rise • Credit markets more nervous particularly with heavy supply from tech sector • For defensive equities look to the utility sector after some marked underperformance The US bond market…
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Sep 22, 2026 9:38 am
• The 2027 vs 2006 parallel: strong growth and calm markets right before the lag caught up last time • Economic risk looks contained; market risk does not — valuations don’t need a recession to fall, just higher rates for longer • The Fed, ECB and BoJ are now tightening in sync, and cracks are…
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Sep 15, 2026 11:38 am
For much of the past six months, markets treated the Iran war as some temporary disturbance. As the war progressed and conflicting narratives emerged, oil prices spiked and retreated. Bond yields rose, which encouraged some duration buying. If you were too bearish on bonds, you would be hurt by promises of ceasefires holding, or, in…
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Sep 11, 2026 9:18 am
• US Treasury borrowing costs likely to stay elevated amid fiscal concerns. • September Fed rate-hike probability has risen to 60% amid hawkish Fed commentary. • Indian economy remains resilient despite global headwinds. • Q1 earnings were better than expected, with no meaningful downgrades to FY27 estimates. • We remain positive over the medium-to long…
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