Sep 15, 2026 11:38 am
For much of the past six months, markets treated the Iran war as some temporary disturbance. As the war progressed and conflicting narratives emerged, oil prices spiked and retreated. Bond yields rose, which encouraged some duration buying. If you were too bearish on bonds, you would be hurt by promises of ceasefires holding, or, in…
Read MoreSep 11, 2026 9:18 am
• US Treasury borrowing costs likely to stay elevated amid fiscal concerns. • September Fed rate-hike probability has risen to 60% amid hawkish Fed commentary. • Indian economy remains resilient despite global headwinds. • Q1 earnings were better than expected, with no meaningful downgrades to FY27 estimates. • We remain positive over the medium-to long…
Read MoreSep 8, 2026 6:13 am
• Equity market calm looks mistaken: bonds and commodities repriced sharply higher last week even as major indices barely moved • Seven developed market central bank meetings in the next two months could deliver up to three hikes, against a growth backdrop that is accelerating, not slowing • The marginal buyer of US Treasuries is…
Read MoreSep 3, 2026 9:11 am
August was a good month for risk assets, but not a comfortable one. Global equities rose 2.6%, the US gained 2.7%, technology returned to leadership and emerging markets advanced 3.4%. Gold rose almost 10% and Bitcoin more than 25%. Yet the most important market during the month may have been the bond market, where long-dated…
Read MoreAug 31, 2026 10:51 am
Two forces pushed markets in opposite directions last week. Nvidia’s quarterly results provided a fantastic boost to the AI investment theme. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh sounded cautious on inflation, saying it was still too high and suggesting that interest rates needed to rise. Nvidia encapsulates the bull market. The chipmaker delivered almost everything…
Read MoreAug 24, 2026 10:28 am
The United States still enjoys some extraordinary advantages: the world’s deepest capital markets, its leading technology companies, the dollar’s reserve currency status, and an economy that has repeatedly confounded those predicting its demise. But markets are increasingly being made to believe in something that really doesn’t add up — exceptional growth, heavy private investment, extraordinarily…
Read MoreAug 17, 2026 9:20 am
Markets keep pretending the bond problem is about inflation and the Fed. It is not, or at least not only. The uncomfortable truth is that too many credible borrowers now want the same pool of capital at the same time. Governments are running deficits as if savings were limitless, while AI, defence, grids and energy…
Read MoreAug 14, 2026 7:13 am
• Middle East risks remain elevated, keeping energy and shipping routes under pressure. • Middle East developments are a key risk to global inflation, even as growth remains resilient. • India’s economic activity remains resilient, while external account pressures have moderated. • Q1FY27 earnings are sustaining the recovery, while valuations remain reasonable. • We remain…
Read MoreAug 11, 2026 11:06 am
Weak US jobs data and softer Asian inflation give the Fed some room, but that doesn’t essentially mean a policy pivot. We stay constructively positioned near-term but resist adding to US mega-cap concentration. In our view, Asian tech capex beneficiaries and industrial cyclicals screen better on a risk-adjusted basis. Long-end US yields remain the unresolved…
Read MoreAug 4, 2026 6:45 am
Markets can live with bad news. What they can’t live with is ambiguity regarding the rules. That’s the story of this month, and it’s the overarching theme whether it’s Washington or Beijing or Tokyo: the institutions we rely on to navigate war, inflation, and political risk are all, in their own way, choosing to say…
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