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Macro and Markets Review for April ’26

May 5, 2026

9:21 am

April was a month in which markets moved from hoping that the inflation shock would be temporary to accepting that policy may need to stay tighter for longer. Global growth momentum has been lost. Growth surprises have turned decisively weaker. Europe led the deterioration, and the aggregate G10 growth surprise index has now moved firmly…

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Rate Cuts Won’t Reopen the Straits

Apr 29, 2026

12:00 am

Markets enter the week facing the same unresolved equation that has characterised the past two months: a Gulf conflict barely eight weeks old, a Federal Reserve in leadership transition, and an equity market eyeing the certainty that the macro backdrop does not yet support. The temptation to discount the problems — to assume the ceasefire…

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Portfolio Commentary

Apr 27, 2026

6:31 am

Indian Equities: A pause in Leadership, not the end of it • India remains a structural outperformer vs broader EM despite near-term divergence • Corrections of 10–15% in a year have historically led to strong forward returns • Current phase is a reset in valuations and time, not a break in the cycle Indian equities…

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Markets Are Trading Hope. The Real Economy Is Still Trading Disruption.

Apr 21, 2026

7:32 am

I. THE SCALE OF THE DISRUPTION: GETTING THE NUMBERS RIGHT Before anything else about market psychology or diplomatic signalling warrants attention, the physical facts of the ongoing disruption deserve to stand on their own. They are extraordinary, and any analysis that blurs or minimises them is starting from a false position. Tanker transits through the…

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