US Inflation on the Wrong Trajectory

Feb 21, 2023

5:28 am

• US core inflation is re-accelerating • Fed will have to work harder to slow growth • Longer dated US government bonds closer to fair value – but only if year-end inflation forecasts are correct • The market has been very poor at forecasting inflation • Equity markets have downside risk If there ever was…

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The Markets’ Head Has Turned

Feb 13, 2023

10:50 am

• The bond market finally realises the Fed might be right • Money market now prices rates above 5% and a slow decline • Bond yields up sharply and 10 year likely headed for 3.90% • Equity rally stalls and further mixed trading very likely • Only Asian equites and preferred bonds on our buying…

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Investment Strategy

Feb 8, 2023

4:54 am

• Global market momentum continued in January as markets expect the rate hike cycle to end soon. • The disconnect between central bank actions and market reactions exposes it to negative surprises. • India’s union budget was balanced and prudent, and builds on past development agendas. • We remain neutral on equities and await Q4FY22…

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Running Hot

Feb 7, 2023

9:20 am

• Last week’s US economic data was much stronger than expected • Bond market will likely worry that the labour market is very tight • US unemployment rate the lowest since 1969 • Fed will not be deflected from raising rates • We expect further profit taking in bond and equity markets • Adani a…

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