market-commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY

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Waiting

Sep 12, 2022

2:30 pm

• The markets appear to be in the mood to put a positive spin on current data • However central bankers remain hawkish pushing on with substantial rate rises ahead • Fiscal policy in Europe is starting to take the edge off some of the worst predictions of recession. • Both the UK and eurozone…

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Investment Strategy

Sep 8, 2022

12:07 pm

The inflation talk After relentless selling during the first half of this year, markets rallied hard in July as the Fed remarks were interpreted as more dovish than expected. The bond markets were pricing in a Fed rate cut by as early as February 2023, and equity markets too rejoiced at the prospect; with the…

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Worryingly Positive

Sep 6, 2022

6:28 am

• There are few places to hide from falling markets • Equity and bond market returns become more positively correlated • More inflation lurks within a positive US employment report • ECB likely to increase rates by 75bps even as Russia turns off a gas tap • A new prime minister in the UK, amidst…

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The Penny Finally Drops

Aug 30, 2022

10:26 am

• Jerome Powell sends a very clear message – rates will be higher for longer • Equity market sell-off could extend • However, longer-dated bonds are well behaved; 10-year looks to hold at around the 3% level • We remain underweight equities and, instead, continue to recommend holding high levels of cash The US financial…

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