History is not on the Side of a Fed Rate Cut

Apr 11, 2023

5:00 am

• A Federal Reserve rate cut requires a marked deterioration in the US economy and/or a financial crisis • Chinese equity market needs a revival of consumption, and so does the government History says a Fed rate cut is not on the cards Looking back at the history of the circumstances that led to a…

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Investment Strategy

Apr 6, 2023

6:47 am

• Stress in the US and European banks is unlikely to lead to contagion, amid swift central bank actions. • Central banks continue to hike rates, even as the market expects them to pivot. • We suggest investors exercise caution but not miss out on opportunities that may arise. • Change in taxation of non-equity…

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Q1 Market Review- Better than it Seemed

Apr 4, 2023

9:23 am

• Markets rally but only after a banking crisis caused jitters • Equities and bonds give good returns • The market assumes the Fed will back off from a tight monetary policy • Growth remains robust—and inflation is still a problem The just-concluded first quarter was a roller coaster. Just as the worries about higher…

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Fear of Fear Itself

Mar 28, 2023

4:53 am

• The banking sector is likely to remain the epicentre of investor fear • Market focus has switched away from bank runs to exposure to commercial real estate • Deutsche Bank is not Credit Suisse despite its share price following the same path • Investors switch into money market funds from bank deposits is a…

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