Inflation and More Inflation

Feb 28, 2023

7:21 am

• Further evidence of a resurgence in US inflation • Fed has a headache – we expect them to raise rates by 75bps over the next two meetings • US 10-year bond yield likely to push through 4% but still not a ‘real’ yield • Equities still have downside risk particularly in the US •…

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Portfolio Commentary

Feb 23, 2023

5:52 am

Pockets of optimism January proved challenging for the markets, which declined 2-3% across the board. However, the fall in mid and small caps was consistent with the fall in headline indices, which is a refreshing change given their high beta nature. The earnings season, which began this month, thus far has been in line with…

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US Inflation on the Wrong Trajectory

Feb 21, 2023

5:28 am

• US core inflation is re-accelerating • Fed will have to work harder to slow growth • Longer dated US government bonds closer to fair value – but only if year-end inflation forecasts are correct • The market has been very poor at forecasting inflation • Equity markets have downside risk If there ever was…

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The Markets’ Head Has Turned

Feb 13, 2023

10:50 am

• The bond market finally realises the Fed might be right • Money market now prices rates above 5% and a slow decline • Bond yields up sharply and 10 year likely headed for 3.90% • Equity rally stalls and further mixed trading very likely • Only Asian equites and preferred bonds on our buying…

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