I’ve got Ukraine on my Mind

Feb 24, 2022

12:26 am

• The geopolitical risks – and not a new macroeconomic regime – are the markets’ latest worry. • The stakes are high as an attack on Ukraine by Russian forces appears imminent. • Europe politically may never look the same, raising uncertainty in the region. • With inflation continuing to be a vexing problem, markets…

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Markets gripped by geopolitical and inflation risks

Feb 17, 2022

8:59 am

• Inflation keeps surprising on the upside • Ukraine conflict adds upward pressure via the energy channel • Inflation markets may not be fully discounting the risks The persistence of inflation against expectations and the ongoing surprises to the upside have overwhelmed the markets somewhat. Inflation has already been high for some time now, but…

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Has the Penny Dropped?

Feb 9, 2022

7:34 am

• Watch out for US inflation data this coming week it could be ugly. • US labour market data was strong but full of unprecedented revisions. • The 5.7% annualised increase in US hourly wages adds to the inflation risks. • US 10-year yields look set to push through 2.0% • US small caps look…

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Central Bankers – Tigers Still with no Teeth

Feb 4, 2022

12:24 am

• The Fed appears to be on the path of “nimble” policymaking, hoping to get a grip on inflation soon. • While inflation was of global central banks’ making, they now realise that they bit off more than they can chew. • The probability of at least five rate hikes by the Fed this year…

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