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Taylor Rules!

Apr 20, 2022

4:31 am

• The Taylor Rule implies that Fed funds rate could hit 7-10% • We fear that higher rates may do little to curtail demand growth and help ease inflation • The Fed can try to control excess demand but have little impact on supply disruptions • Markets remain at risk; bond yields to go higher,…

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The Bond Reset is Here. Now What?

Apr 12, 2022

8:52 am

• The risk that persisting inflation presents is still a big deal for government bonds • Ongoing inflation risk undermines the safe-haven status of government bonds • Higher yields in riskier credit markets now more interesting to income seekers • There’s more logic to the equity market sell-off with defensives outperforming The markets just can’t…

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Global Macro Update

Apr 6, 2022

10:47 am

The shock of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is wearing off from people’s minds and growth concerns are beginning to surface. Global GDP growth forecasts are expected to be revised downwards – Fitch recently cut its world GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 0.7pp to 3.5%, with the eurozone cut by 1.5pp to 3.0%. Even as the…

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An Inverted World?

Apr 5, 2022

8:58 am

• The inversion of the yield curve has fuelled talks of an impending recession. • Depends on your definition of yield curve, 2y-10y inverted, but 3mth-10Y not so. • The minutes of the Fed’s last meeting likely to set out pace of quantitative tightening. • Food inflation-some worrying trends. • Political challenges in Sri Lanka…

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