market-commentary

MARKET COMMENTARY

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They Don’t Know What They are Doing

May 10, 2022

11:55 am

• Central Bank meetings show a wide diversity of views within each individual bank • Relative to expected levels of inflation monetary policy remains behind the curve • Rising recession risks has credit wobbling • A further stage of equity market sell off may follow the credit markets • In China it doesn’t get any…

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Plenty of Reasons to be Concerned

May 5, 2022

6:17 am

• US equity sell-off has gained momentum • Central bankers, meanwhile, are accelerating their monetary tightening • Growth stocks are at the epicentre of the current sell-off with still more downside risks • Latin America is ahead of the rest of the world in its tightening cycle – a positive for the local asset markets…

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A Market Without Bounds

Apr 26, 2022

10:35 am

• Sharp corrections in corners of the financial markets are an indication of lurking risk • Yen moves to a two-decade low against the dollar • US two-year yields have increased fivefold in a few months • US equities lack technical support as the market level moves into no man’s land • S&P500 at risk…

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Taylor Rules!

Apr 20, 2022

4:31 am

• The Taylor Rule implies that Fed funds rate could hit 7-10% • We fear that higher rates may do little to curtail demand growth and help ease inflation • The Fed can try to control excess demand but have little impact on supply disruptions • Markets remain at risk; bond yields to go higher,…

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